Asian Macro Initial Thoughts & Data Impacting Asia 14 - 18 July. EU and Mexico hit with 30% tariffs from Aug 1; TACO or not?
NZX opened lower and tested down to 12,670 initially, then took another leg down 12,656 level before bouncing now trading 12,660/70
Overview.
China trade data in focus this morning and the potential for loans growth data too. Also this week we get GDP data and other data like Retail Sales and Unemployment on Tuesday.
As the week continues we get US inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week along with retail sales and then Michigan data on Friday. The question is whether we see any impact from tariffs yet, steel and aluminium especially. Tariffs remain the big unknown still.
Earnings starts to pick up too with a number of the banks reporting this week; with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock and JPMorgan on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday. Analysts expect a glittering set of reports, buoyed by the weak dollar and broad sanguinity about the likelihood of a global trade war. We also get pharmaceuticals, with Johnson & Johnson and Novartis posting earnings. Another is the semiconductor industry, with reports from TSMC and ASML.
In the UK the Chancellors Mansion House address will be focus as she tries to explain the Governments proposed policies to try and generate more growth for the economy.
For Japan today we have the Bank of Japan due to issue quarterly report on households’ inflation expectations. Later we have trade data which may show the impact of tariffs and inflation data which again could see tariff impact as companies try to cut costs in order to absorb tariffs to remain competitive.
Today sentiment weak as investors try to assess whether Trumps recent tariff threats will be executed or not. FT reports that the EU will delay its plan to hit the US with tariffs on €21bn of its annual exports to Europe on Tuesday in the hope of coming to an agreement after Donald Trump announced that he would hit the bloc with 30 per cent tariffs from August 1. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that the application of tariffs to €21bn of annual US exports to the EU, including chicken, motorcycles and clothes, that were due to come into effect on July 15 would be suspended until “early August”. She is also looking to hold talks with other Countries who are also being hurt by Trumps new tariff threats.
That follows many Global manufacturing executives seeking clarity from Trump’s tariff policy before a 50% levy is imposed on copper imports, as their stockpiles diminish and the clock ticks on existing contracts. The US president has vowed to impose the higher tariff on the metal from August 1, matching levels already in place on all imports of steel and aluminium. But it remains unclear whether the levy will be applied to all copper products, stoking anxiety across industries.
Worth noting that China’s demand for petrol and diesel is falling as electric vehicle sales surge, but the trend is being masked by the country’s massive strategic stockpiling of crude oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. The agency noted that Chinese demand for transport fuels has declined for three consecutive months. This coincides with a 50% year-on-year jump in EV sales in the first half of 2025, which is directly “eating into end-user demand,” said Toril Bosoni, head of oil industry and markets division at the IEA.
That comes as European Union envoys are on the verge of agreeing an 18th package of sanctions against Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine that would include a lower price cap on Russian oil, four EU sources said after a Sunday meeting. The sources said all the elements of the package had been agreed, although one member state still has a technical reservation on the new cap. The sources - speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential talks - said they expect to reach a full agreement on Monday, ahead of a foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels the following day that could formally approve the package. The sources said they had also agreed to a dynamic price mechanism for the price cap. On Friday, the European Commission proposed a floating price cap on Russian oil of 15% below the average market price of crude in the previous three months.
France closed today for Bastille Day
Earnings this week include
Tuesday Aker BP Q2, Ericsson Q2, Tomtom Q2, Bank of New York Mellon Q2, Wells Fargo Q2, Citigroup Q2, JPMorgan Chase Q2, Experian Q1 2026, Barratt Redrow FY trading statement, B&M Q1 trading statement
Wednesday Morgan Stanley Q2, Bank of America Q2, Goldman Sachs Q2, Johnson & Johnson Q2, Morgan Stanley Q2, ASML Q2, Richemont Q1, Finnair H1
Thursday TSMC Q2, Volvo Cars Q2, PepsiCo Q2, Marsh McLennan Q2, easyJet Q3, Novartis Q2, GE Aerospace Q2, US Bancorp Q2, Frasers Group FY, Dunelm Q4 and FY
Friday Telenor Q2, Burberry Q1, Danske Bank Q2, Charles Schwab Q2
Housekeeping
On Monday I will on RTHK’s Money Talk with host Chloe Feng and Nigel Foo, Head of Asian Fixed Income, First Sentier. Looking at the Global markets and tariffs, China economy and whether this months Politburo meeting will announce more stimulus? We also hope to touch on currencies too.
Click the link below if you have a topic you would like discussed this coming Monday or if you just want to listen to the programme use the link below.
https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/money_talk
On Friday I was on Peter Lewis’ Money Talk podcast. It has just been ranked on the ‘100 Best Global Economy Podcasts' list (at No. 57) by the judging panel at 'MillionPodcasts’. I was on with David Roche Strategist at Quantum Strategy, who made some very insightful comments about the tariffs and their potential impact. I still think that Trump using tariffs against Brazil politics should give the US courts reason to find that they are illegal, these are not national emergencies. Also covered the FOMC minutes, reasons to stay on hold apart from … listen to the podcast to find out why.
PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Friday 11 July 2025open.substack.com
Thursday afternoon I was on RTHK’s The Close, with Nitan Dialis and Steve Brice, Chief Investment Officer Standard Chartered Bank Singapore. As always tariffs came up but we didn’t have an answer to why tariff copper.
If there is a topic you want discussed next week please message me or them via the link, which can also be used to listen to the programme
https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/the_close
Looking for good Independent Research, Showcase Events, Introductions & Marketplace, Reports, blogs, trials, podcasts then click the link
https://www.eri-c.com/
It is MiFID II compliant, you can try Before You Buy, there is Research Evalution. and information can be shared across team or firm. It has Different Views at the Best Price. Buyers transact at offered prices or with vendor permission, by agreement. ERIC's industry low commission rates - charged only to sellers - allow both buyers and sellers to realise better net pricing simulataneously. The differentiated price discovery mechanism entertains private bids and negotiation (on or offline) to broaden demand capture and liquidity.
If you have any problems connecting, call or message me and I will sort your issue out.
For Example last recently Russell Napier was in conversation with Andy Rothman on the topic of Will Trump make China great again. Russell has covered Asia for year and Andy has a unique perspective on China, having lived and worked there for more than 20 years as an American diplomat and a sell-side macro strategist. Andy first went to China as a student in 1980, returned as Foreign Service Officer in 1984, joined CLSA in Shanghai in 2000, and then went to the buy side with Matthews Asia in 2014. This year, Andy founded Sinology LLC, advising institutional investors and corporate directors on the risks and opportunities in the Chinese economy, and on navigating the rising tensions in US-China relations. This follows on from Andy’s recent webinar after a recent visit to China in early April you can still go to the website to listen to that recording if you didn’t hear it live.
Mark Tinker recently posted the Latest thoughts from Market Thinker - 'From Big Beautiful Bill to Bunker Busting Bombs. Perspectives are shifting - Monthly Market Thinking July. An interesting take on how the month turned out
You can find the whole article here
Data Impacting Asia 14 - 18 July
New Zealand
Monday Composite PCI, Services PSI, Electronic Retail Card Spending
Tuesday 1 year Bill Auction, 3 & 6 month Bill Auction, Global Dairy Trade Price Index
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday Food Inflation
Friday Credit Card Spending
Australia
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday Consumer Confidence Change and Index
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday Consumer Inflation Expectations, Employment Change, Full Time Employment, Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate
Friday No Data Due
Japan
Monday Machinery Orders, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Tertiary Industry Index
Tuesday 5-Year Climate Transition JGB Auction
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday Tankan Index, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports Foreign Bond Investment, Stock Investment by Foreigners, 52-Week Bill Auction
Friday Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate Ex Food & Energy, 3-Month Bill Auction, BoJ JGB Purchases
Sunday Upper House Election
S Korea
Monday 10-Year KTB Auction
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday Export Import Prices
Thursday Unemployment Rate also the Supreme Court to deliver final verdict on Samsung Electronics chair Jay Y Lee
Friday No Data Due
Taiwan No Data Scheduled this week
China
Monday Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Could get New Yuan Loans, M2 Money Supply, Outstanding Loan Growth, Total Social Financing
Tuesday House Price Index, GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Capacity Utilisation, Unemployment Rate
Wednesday No Data Due. Four-day International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports
Thursday No Data Due
Friday No Data Due
Sunday Loan Prime Rate
Hong Kong
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday Unemployment Rate
Friday Business Confidence
Macau
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday No Data Due
Friday Tourist Arrivals
Singapore
Monday GDP Growth Rate
Tuesday MAS 12 & 4 Week Bill Auction
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday Non-Oil Exports, Balance of Trade, 6-Month T-Bill Auction
Friday No Data Due
Malaysia
Monday Retail Sales
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday No Data Due
Friday Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports GDP Growth Rate
Indonesia
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday Interest Rate Decision
Thursday Loan Growth
Friday No Data Due
Philippines
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday No Data Due
Wednesday Cash Remittances
Thursday No Data Due
Friday No Data Due
Thailand No Data Scheduled this week
Cambodia No data scheduled this week
Myanmar No data scheduled this week
Vietnam No data scheduled this week
India
Monday WPI (Food Index, Fuel, Inflation, Manufacturing) Inflation Rate
Tuesday Passenger Vehicle Sales, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday No Data Due
Friday Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth, Foreign Exchange Reserves
Euro Zone
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday Industrial Production, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Wednesday Balance of Trade
Thursday Core Inflation, CPI Final, Inflation Rate
Friday Current Account, Construction Output
Germany
Monday 12-Month Bubill Auction
Tuesday ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & Current Conditions, 2-Year Schatz Auction
Wednesday 30-Year Bund Auction
Thursday No Data Due
Friday PPI
France
Monday No Data Due - Market closed for Bastille Day
Tuesday 12, 3 & 6 month BTF Auction
Wednesday No Data Due
Thursday 2028, 2030 & 2031 OAT Auction, 2034 & 2038 Index-Linked OAT Auction, 2039 OATi Auction
Friday No Data Due
United Kingdon
Monday No Data Due
Tuesday BRC Retail Sales Monitor, Treasury Stock 2032 Auction
Wednesday Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, Retail Price Index, Treasury Gilt 2034 Auction
Thursday Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings Incl & Ex Bonus (3Mo/Yr), Employment Change, HMRCPayrolls Change, Claimant Count Change,
Friday No Data Due
United States
Monday 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction
Tuesday Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, CPI, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Redbook, Feds Bowman speaks, NOPA Crush Report, Feds Barr & Collins speak, API Crude Oil Stock Index, Feds Logan speaks
Wednesday MBA Data (30 yr Mortgage Rate, Applications, Market Index, Refinance Index, Purchase Index), PPI, Core PPI, PPI Ex Food,Energy & Trade, Feds Hammack speaks, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Feds Barr speaks, EIA Oil Stocks Change, 17-Week Bill Auction, Fed Beige Book, Feds Williams speaks
Thursday Retail Sales, Retail Sales Control Group, Retail Sales Ex Auto, Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos, Export & Import Prices, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Jobless Claims 4 week average, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed (Business Conditions, CAPEX Index, Employment, New Orders, Prices Paid), Business Inventories, Feds Kugler speaks, NAHB Housing Market Index, EIA Gas Stocks Change, 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15 & 30 year Mortgage Rate, Feds Cook Speaks, Net Long-term TIC flows, Foreign Bind Investments, Overall Net Capital Flows, Fed Balance Sheet, Feds Waller speaks
Friday Building Permits, Housing Starts, Michigan Prelim (Consumer Sentiment, 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Consumer Expectations, Current Conditions, Inflation Expectations) Baker Huges Oil Rig Count.
Market opening indications and data
New Zealand
NZX opened lower and tested down to 12,670 initially but then took another leg down 12,656 level.
Data out after the open
Composite PCI Jun 48.3 vs 44.3 May. (F/cast was 46)
Services PSI Jun 47.3 vs 44.0 May. (F/cast was 45.6)
Electronic Retail Card Spending Jun 0.5% MoM vs -0.1% May revised from -0.2%. (F/cast was 0.2%)
Electronic Retail Card Spending Jun -0.4% YoY vs -0.1% May revised 0.9%. (F/cast was 1.1%)
Australia - No Data Due
ASX to open lower, futures indicate -13pts -0.15% at 8,548, Sentiment weak after Trump’s latest tariff threats the question is whether the down side will be limited by strength in the energy sector and miners.
Japan
Market to open lower
Nikkei 225 Futures indicate -10pts -0.03% at 39,500
Chicago Futures -215pts -0.54% at 39,345
Yen closed 147.40 in US. Trading 147.48 in early trades
Data Due 10 mins pre market
Machine Order May YoY vs -9.1% Apr (F/cast is 0.5%)
Machine Order May MoM vs 6.6% Apr (F/cast is 5.5%)
Late Morning
Capacity Utilisation May MoM vs 1.3% Apr (F/cast is 0.5%)
Industrial Production Final May MoM vs -1.1% Apr (F/cast is 0.5%)
Industrial Production Final May YoY vs 0.5% Apr (F/cast is -1.8%)
Tertiary Industry Index May MoM vs 0.3% Apr (F/cast is 0.3%)
S Korea
Market to open lower with concerns over tariff threats
Data Due
10-Year KTB Auction vs 2.885% prior
Taiwan - No Data Due
Market to open lower although downside limited by good recent earnings but tariff threats remain a concern
China
Market to open lower after the Golden Dragon China Index closed -32pts -0.43% at 7,436
FTSE A50 China Futures -46pts -0.33% at 13,735
MSCI A50 China Futures -3.8pts -0.18% at 2,156.4
Spot USD/CNY opening 0.0038 pts 0.05% at 7.1755
Data Due 30 minutes after the open
Balance of Trade Jun vs $103.22B May (F/cast is $100B)
Export Jun YoY vs 4.8% May (F/cast is 5.5%)
Imports Jun YoY vs -3.4% May (F/cast is 2.5%)
Could get
New Yuan Loans Jun vs CNY620B May (F/cast is CNY2050B)
M2 Money Supply Jun YoY vs 7.9% May (F/cast 7.9%)
Outstanding Loan Growth Jun YoY vs 7.1% May (F/cast is 7.8%)
Total Social Financing Jun vs CNY 2290B May (F/cast is CNY37550B)
Hong Kong - No Data Due
Market to open lower, ADR’s closed up -30pts -0.13% at 23,857 with only SHKP, CCB, Bank of China (HK) and Xiaomi in the green. I would expect the market to trend lower, especially if the China data shows weakness.
Futures indicate -72pts -0.3% at 24,088
Turnover on Friday HK$323.95B vs HK$246.728B Thursday. Short selling eased to 15.8% vs 20.4% Thursday
Macau - No Data Due
Singapore - Data Due
GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2 QoQ vs -0.6% Q1 (F/cast is )0.9
GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2 YoY vs 3.9% Q1 (F/cast is 3.5%)
Malaysia - Data Due
Retail Sales May YoY vs 4.7% Apr (F/cast is 4.3%)
Indonesia - No Data Due
Philippines - No Data Due
Thailand - No Data Scheduled this week
Myanmar - Data Scheduled this week
Cambodia - No Data Scheduled this week
Vietnam - No Date Scheduled this week
Vietnamese officials were surprised by Trump’s 20 % tariff they believed they had secured a lower tariff rate had been pushing for something in the range of 10% to 15%, the Bloomberg report said.
India - Data Due After Market
Foreign Exchange Reserves 4 Jul vs $702.78B (F/cast is $705B)
Out After Market Thursday
M3 Money Supply 27 Jun YoY vs 9.8% Prior
Europe
Eurozone No Data Due
Germany 12-Month Bubill Auction
France No Data Due - Market closed for Bastille Day
United Kingdom No Data Due
United States
Futures Dow -183pts -0.4%, S&P -0.41% and NDX -0.44%
Data Due 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction
HEADLINES & NEWS
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
PM Albanese arrived in Shanghai on Saturday for a six-day visit to three Chinese cities where regional security tensions and economic ties are likely to dominate talks. Albanese's second visit to China, where he will meet President Xi Jinping, comes after Canberra stepped up screening of Chinese investment in critical minerals and as U.S. President Donald Trump rattles the global economy with sweeping import tariffs.
The clean energy era is arriving. Is your power company ready? As more Australians turn to solar panels and batteries to cut their reliance on the grid, energy retailers are racing to reinvent themselves.
Transport will overtake energy production as Australia’s leading source of emissions by 2023 as the diesel-reliant trucking industry faces a crossroads on how to cut its carbon footprint to zero.
Pop-up restaurants flourish as cafes get creative on covering costs. Facing rising costs and customers hesitant to price hikes, some cafes are subletting to nightly pop-ups to split rental burden, creating a wave of new eateries
JAPAN
US. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday played down concerns about relations with key U.S. ally Japan, saying there is no "drama or division," despite the Japanese prime minister speaking of the need for Tokyo to wean itself off U.S. dependence. In remarks to reporters, Rubio also disputed reports of U.S. pressure on Japan to significantly increase its defense spending, saying that while Washington was "encouraging" Tokyo to invest in certain capabilities, this did not amount to a "demand.” "It's less to do with the amount of money and more to do about certain things they can do," he said after attending a regional meeting in Malaysia. Japanese media reported last month that the Trump administration was demanding that Japan and other Asian allies boost defense spending to 5% of GDP in line with demands on NATO members.
The BoJ may face political pressure to keep interest rates low for longer than it wants, as opposition parties favouring tax cuts and loose monetary policy are expected to gain influence after a July 20 election. Opinion surveys suggest Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition may lose its majority in the upper house of parliament, forcing it to court an array of smaller parties pushing for easier fiscal and monetary policy. The governing bloc led by Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party is already a minority in the more powerful lower house, so a stalemate in both chambers could give opposition parties outsized influence in policy decisions. Ishiba has supported the Bank of Japan's policy of gradually lifting interest rates from near zero as inflation picks up in the world's fourth-biggest economy, while trying to curb the biggest government debt burden in the industrial world. But if opposition groups gain traction with their pressure on the BOJ to avoid rate hikes and for the government to cut the sales tax, that could boost bond yields and complicate the bank's efforts to normalise monetary policy, some analysts say.
Nissan (7201.T) is in talks to supply cars to Honda (7267.T) in the United States, which would let the struggling Japanese automaker put to use an under-utilised American plant, the Nikkei newspaper said on Friday, without citing sources. Nissan is considering making Honda pickup trucks at its Canton plant in Mississippi, which turns out models such as the Frontier, the paper said. After Nissan's talks to merge with Honda to form the world's third-largest automaker fell apart this year, the two said they would keep up an agreement to work together in areas such as electric vehicles. In a statement on Friday, Nissan said it had no additional updates, although it continued to work on projects with Honda. It said it would not comment on speculation. Honda officials were not immediately available for comment. Nissan reported a net loss of $4.5 billion in the financial year that ended in March, and has been badly hit by dwindling sales as it grapples with an ageing vehicle lineup. It faces debt of about 700 billion yen ($4.8 billion) coming due this year and its debt ratings have been cut to junk by all three major credit ratings firms. New CEO Ivan Espinosa has unveiled a sweeping cost-cutting plan that includes closing seven factories worldwide and a cut of 15% in the global workforce. Like other legacy automakers, Nissan and Honda face rising competition from Chinese players and difficulties stemming from U.S.-Japan trade talks over auto tariffs.
Panasonic Holdings (6752.T) will postpone its plan to bring its new U.S. electric vehicle battery plant to full capacity by March 2027 as Tesla, its main customer, is experiencing sluggish sales, the Nikkei business daily reported on Friday. The new target date to reach full production of 30 gigawatt-hours at the $4 billion plant in the U.S. state of Kansas has yet to be fixed, the Nikkei said. Panasonic said it could not immediately comment. The Kansas plant, Panasonic's second large-scale battery plant in the United States after one in Nevada, is scheduled to start mass production soon, the newspaper said. Tesla has been grappling with a series of challenges including CEO Elon Musk's public feud with U.S. President Donald Trump, the end of U.S. EV tax credits and a sales slump due to ageing vehicle lineup.
SOUTH KOREA
Household loans extended by five major banks in South Korea rose in the first 10 days of this month, but the pace of growth slowed sharply amid the government's stepped-up efforts to rein in household debt. Outstanding household loans extended by the five major commercials banks here, including KB Kookmin Bank and Shinhan Bank, stood at 755.7 trillion won ($547.8 billion) as of Thursday, up 891.2 billion won from the end of June, according to the data. This translates to a daily increase of 89.1 billion won over the 10-day period in July, compared with a daily gain of 225.1 billion won recorded in June. If this trend continues through the end of the month, household loans are expected to increase by 2.76 trillion won in July, sharply less than a 6.75 trillion won increase in the previous month. In contrast, unsecured loans fell by 137.7 billion won, reversing a 1.09 trillion won gain in June. Industry officials attributed the slowdown to stronger debt control measures announced by financial authorities late last month to cool the overheated housing market in Seoul. Under the new rules, mortgage lending for home purchases in the capital region will be capped at 600 million won. By category, outstanding home-backed loans rose 1.38 trillion won to 600.8 trillion won over the 10-day span.
Korea’s leading game publisher Krafton pinned the blame for delays in the early access launch of Subnautica 2 on the founders of US subsidiary Unknown Worlds Entertainment, as a legal dispute simmers with the studio’s dismissed executives. In a statement Friday, Krafton called its decision to replace the leadership at California-based Unknown Worlds a “difficult but necessary step” to ensure the quality of the highly anticipated sequel. “We allocated approximately 90 percent of the up to $250 million earn-out compensation to the three former executives, with the expectation that they would demonstrate leadership and active involvement in the development of Subnautica 2,” the company said. “However, regrettably, the former leadership abandoned the responsibilities entrusted to them.”
Once deemed wishful thinking, an ambitious target for 5,000 points for South Korea’s benchmark Kospi is now firmly on the radar, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasting the index could climb over 50 percent from current levels within just two years — if the government follows through on its pledge to accelerate corporate governance reforms. The bullish forecast was reported by Bloomberg on Saturday, citing a note from JPMorgan strategists. “Korea remains a key overweight market in Asia and among emerging markets,” the strategists wrote, as cited by Bloomberg. “The Kospi Index, which has gained 32 percent so far this year and is approaching a record high, could reach around 5,000.” JPMorgan upgraded Korean equities to “overweight” from “neutral” earlier this week, pointing to President Lee Jae Myung’s efforts to narrow the "Korea Discount" — the persistent valuation gap with peers like Japan and Taiwan — and deliver what the bank called “the next phase of governance reforms” during his five-year term.
The number of transactions involving Seoul apartments worth at least 2.6 billion won ($1.88 million) from January to July has more than doubled compared to the same period last year, data from a local real estate research firm showed Sunday. There were 3,424 sales of apartment units above this threshold in the first half of 2025, compared to just 1,467 in the first half of 2024, according to the data by Real Today. About 73.8 percent of the transactions involving apartments worth 2.6 billion won or more were focused on the affluent southern districts commonly referred to as Gangnam — Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu. Gangnam-gu led with 1,105 while Seocho-gu followed with 862 and Songpa-gu with 561. The combined market prices of apartments in the three Gangnam districts were found to make up about 43 percent of the value of all apartments in the nation’s capital, another report by another real estate data analysis firm showed earlier this month. In contrast, not a single sale of these high-priced apartments were made in the Nowon-gu, Dobong-gu, Gangbuk-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Gwanak-gu, and Guro-gu, administrative districts that have generally lower housing prices. The provisional data in the report showed that a total of 40,556 apartment units were sold in the first half of 2025, up 52.5 percent from 26,593 in the first half of last year.
TAIWAN
The army’s 21st Artillery Command conducted a short-range air defense drill in Taoyuan yesterday as part of the Han Kuang exercises, using the indigenous Sky Sword II missile system for the first time in the exercises. The armed forces have been conducting a series of live-fire and defense drills across multiple regions, simulating responses to a full-scale assault by Chinese forces, the Ministry of National Defense said. The Sky Sword II missile system was rapidly deployed and combat-ready within 15 minutes to defend Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in a simulated attack, the ministry said.
The percentage of Taiwanese businesses investing in China has been steadily declining since 2010 due to increased costs, the US-China trade war and the slowdown of China’s economic development, Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) spokesperson Li Pao-wen said. In terms of Taiwan’s total outward investment, the percentage of businesses investing in China has dropped from 83.8 percent in 2010 to 11.4 percent in 2023, 7.5 percent last year and 2.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, Li said in an exclusive interview with Liberty Times, the Taipei Times’ sister paper. Li said that 70 percent of these businesses experienced a drop in profits last year, and this trend is unlikely to change in the short term. While the decline in Taiwanese investment in China has mostly been attributed to the New Southbound Policy, this is not actually the case, he said. Taiwanese investment in regions other than China has been increasing since 2012, before the New Southbound Policy, he added. Many Taiwanese businesses in 2010 began to feel the impact of China’s investment environment on their profits and started to make changes, he said. Although the proportion of Taiwanese investments in China exceeded 50 percent in 2012, investment in other regions also reached 40 percent that year, up from 22 percent in 2011, Li said. This means that Taiwanese investment worldwide increased by 10 percent in a single year, a substantial surge, all before the New Southbound Policy, he said. Taiwanese businesses began to realize that expenses related to investing in China were rising as its economy developed, Li said. Labor, environmental and regulation compliance costs were rising, especially in coastal cities, so the advantages of investing in those areas no longer existed, he said. China has also been bolstering domestic manufacturing, launching the “made in China” initiative with the goal of becoming a major manufacturing power within 10 years, which has created competition for Taiwanese businesses, Li said, adding that combined with the rising costs, Taiwanese businesses began expanding their investments to other countries.
Australia would not commit troops in advance to any conflict, Australian Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said yesterday in response to a report that said the US was pressing allies to clarify what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan. Australia prioritizes its sovereignty and “we don’t discuss hypotheticals,” Conroy said. “The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day.” The Financial Times on Saturday reported that US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby has been pressing Australian and Japanese officials on what they would do in a Taiwan conflict, although the US does not offer a blank check guarantee to defend Taiwan.
Aggregate sales by companies listed on the local main board rose more than 7 percent year-on-year in June, led by surging global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corp (TWSE) said on Friday. Combined revenue reached NT$3.66 trillion (US$125 billion) last month, up 7.37 percent from a year earlier, with 519 firms reporting year-on-year sales growth and 526 reporting a decline, TWSE said in a statement. Among the major industries, the computer and peripheral equipment sector posted the strongest performance, with revenue soaring nearly 45 percent to NT$935 billion, fueled by robust global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers, the exchange said. The environmental protection and renewable energy sector ranked second, reporting an almost 38 percent year-on-year increase in revenue to NT$12 billion, it said. The information service industry also saw solid growth, generating NT$11 billion in sales last month, an increase of more than 29 percent from a year earlier, it added. On the other hand, the financial and insurance industry recorded the sharpest year-on-year revenue decline for last month, dropping 45.5 percent to NT$108.7 billion amid volatility in global financial markets, TWSE said. The trade and retail sector also posted a significant decline, with revenue falling 35 percent year-on-year to NT$33.6 billion, due to foreign exchange and investment losses, while the cement industry was hit by weakening demand, generating NT$18 billion in sales, down nearly 20 percent from the same month last year, the exchange said.
Taiwanese companies should hold off on major strategic moves in Mexico, a key destination for Taiwanese overseas investment, until the US finalizes its new tariff policies, academics said yesterday, amid uncertainty surrounding proposed duties announced by US President Donald Trump. Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on goods from Mexico starting on Aug. 1 unless new trade agreements are reached. Dachrahn Wu director of National Central University’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, said that while Trump has a history of announcing high tariffs to pressure countries into making concessions, the proposed rates have not yet been finalized, leaving room for negotiation. “Taiwanese firms should not act hastily, as land purchases and factory construction involve major capital expenditures,” Wu said. “Premature moves could trigger capital flight and steep losses in asset values.” He recommended that firms wait until after Aug. 1 — when the US trade outlook is expected to become clearer — before adjusting their overseas investment strategies. More than 300 Taiwanese companies have set up manufacturing operations in Mexico over the past few years, drawn by its proximity to the US and the global trend toward nearshoring. Wu said that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, Taiwanese companies operating in Mexico would face higher production costs and weakened competitiveness.
Pegatron Corp, a key assembler of Apple Inc’s iPhones, expressed optimism on Friday that the traditional peak season in the second half of the year would drive revenue growth and help its overall operations outperform the first half. “Revenue in the second half of the year is expected to surpass that in the first half, as the period typically marks the industry’s peak season,” a Pegatron official told the Taipei Times by telephone on Friday, after the company reported first-half revenue of NT$539.76 billion (US$18.48 billion), up 7.07 percent from the same period last year. The company said it would continue to closely monitor developments related to US tariffs and foreign exchange fluctuations, while pressing forward with overseas capacity expansion. The company established a manufacturing facility in Mexico last year, with mass production of servers at the site expected to begin in the third quarter, said the official, who declined to be named. Pegatron had previously disclosed collaboration with a leading US electric vehicle (EV) maker, and the official added that the company also plans to launch new products with two other automakers from the US, Japan or Europe, with mass production expected to begin by the end of this year, the official said. The company on Thursday posted revenue of NT$78.77 billion for last month, up 11.05 percent year-on-year, but down 8.07 percent from a month earlier.
Prices of gasoline products at domestic fuel stations are this week to drop NT$0.2 per liter, while diesel prices are to remain unchanged from last week, CPC Corp, Taiwan and Formosa Petrochemical Corp said yesterday. The price adjustments came even as international crude oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range last week, with the average prices higher than the previous week, amid a mixed bag of positive and negative factors, the companies said. The factors included Saudi Arabia announcing price hikes for crude oil sold to Asia, Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacking cargo ships in Red Sea, the US Energy Information Administration lowering US crude oil production growth this year and markets worrying that the new round of US tariffs could hit the global economy, the companies added.
CHINA
The US State Department revealed earlier that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Friday in Kuala Lumpur, according to foreign media reports. When responding to inquiries, Mao Ning, Spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA), said that to her knowledge, Wang will meet with Rubio Friday afternoon.
Russia and China's foreign ministers on Sunday discussed their relations with the United States and the prospects for ending the war in Ukraine, Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Vladimir Putin's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in Beijing on Sunday. Lavrov is due to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) foreign ministers in China. "The parties also discussed relations with the United States and prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis," the foreign ministry said. "The importance of strengthening close coordination between the two countries in the international arena, including in the United Nations and its Security Council, the SCO, BRICS, the G20 and APEC, was emphasized," the ministry said. China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing, days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine. Putin has sometimes described China as an "ally".
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will hold a media briefing in Beijing on July 16, an official from the company said on Sunday, marking his second visit to the country after a trip in April where he stressed the importance of the Chinese market. Since 2022, the U.S. government has imposed restrictions on the export of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to China, citing concerns over potential military applications. The U.S. also imposed a ban earlier this year on sales of Nvidia's H20 artificial intelligence chips to the country - which had been Nvidia's most powerful AI chip cleared for Chinese sales. Huang's latest visit has been closely-watched in both U.S. and China. A bipartisan pair of U.S. senators on Friday sent a letter to Huang about his China trip, asking him to abstain from meeting with companies that are working with military or intelligence bodies in the People's Republic of China. The senators also asked Huang to refrain from meeting with entities named on the United States' restricted export list. Nvidia has faced increased competition from Chinese tech giant Huawei and other makers of graphics processing units - the chips used to train artificial intelligence. But Chinese companies, including its big tech firms, still crave Nvidia chips due to the company's computing platform known as CUDA. China generated $17 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fiscal year ending January 26, accounting for 13% of the company’s total sales, based on its latest annual report. Huang has consistently highlighted China as a critical market for Nvidia's growth. Nvidia's market value topped $4 trillion for the first time last week, solidifying the chipmaker's position as Wall Street's central player in a race to dominate AI technology.
China's President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Suriname's President-elect Jennifer Simons, Chinese state media Xinhua reported on Sunday. Xi said he attaches great importance to the development of China-Suriname relations and that he is willing to work with Simmons to promote greater development of the strategic partnership between the two countries, Xinhua reported.
The succession of Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, is a thorn in China-India relations, the Chinese embassy in New Delhi said on Sunday, as India's foreign minister prepares to visit China for the first time since deadly border clashes in 2020. Ahead of celebrations this month for his 90th birthday that were attended by senior Indian ministers, the head of Tibetan Buddhists riled China again by saying it had no role in his succession. Tibetans believe the soul of any senior Buddhist monk is reincarnated after his death, but China says the Dalai Lama's succession will also have to be approved by its leaders. The Dalai Lama has been living in exile in India since 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet, and Indian foreign relations experts say his presence gives New Delhi leverage against China. India is also home to about 70,000 Tibetans and a Tibetan government-in-exile. Yu Jing, a Chinese embassy spokesperson, said on social media app X that some people from strategic and academic communities in India had made "improper remarks" on the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama.
HONG KONG
Buybacks
AIA (01299.HK) repurchased 4 million shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Friday (11th) at a price per share of between $68.25 and $70.6, involving nearly $280 million, according to AIA's announcement. Since the approval of the repurchase mandate resolution, the Group has repurchased a total of nearly 124 million shares, representing 1.1571% of its issued shares.
HSI Short Selling Friday 15.8% vs 20.4% Thursday
Top shorts Zhong Sheng (881) 42%, BYD (1211) 42%, Zijin Mining (2899) 39%, MTRC (66) 37%, China Shenhua (1088) 33%, HK & China Gas (3) 33%, CSPC Pharma (1093) 31%, Sands China (1928) 30%, Bidu (9888) 30%, Chow Tai Fook (1929) 30%, Hansoh Pharma (3692) 27%, SHKP (16) 27%, Bud APAC (1876) 26%, Wuxi Apptec (2359) 26%, Sunny Optical (2382) 26%, Ping An (2318) 25%, Hengan (1044) 25%, Sino Biopharm (1177) 25%.
WATCH
Major bank lenders, including HSBC, have raised their deposit rates in response to warnings from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority about potential upward pressure on interbank rates, with the highest interest rate being 18 percent. HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank's six-month rate has increased to 1.2 percent and three-month Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit interest rate remains at 0.5 percent. Hang Seng Bank (0011) and Bank of China (Hong Kong) (2388) with the three-month and six-month time deposit interest rates for Hang Seng Bank are 0.5 and 0.9 percent. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) continues fund absorption has pushed Hong Kong dollar (HKD) interbank rates (HIBOR) to have been rising steadily, with the one-month rate rising 0.22 percentage points to 1.08 percent last Friday.
Amid the changing trade policies in the United States, Alpha Lau Hai-suen, Director-General of Investment Promotion, expressed confidence in Hong Kong's ability to seize opportunities in the current unstable geopolitical climate. Speaking on a radio program on Sunday, Lau emphasized the necessity of stability for business operations, particularly as global trade is affected by US policies. As China's GDP growth has exceeded 5 percent, along with Hong Kong's position as a free-trade hub in the Asia-Pacific region, Lau added that many companies are shifting away from the US market, establishing a presence in Hong Kong for the Greater Bay Area market. Lau highlighted that the majority of enterprises drawn to Hong Kong in recent years have been linked to finance and fintech, along with logistics and startup businesses, believing it could generate more job opportunities, particularly in the expanding logistics and catering industries. Addressing the recent wave of restaurant closures, Lau remarked that consumer tastes evolve over time, encouraging the catering sector to adapt to trends. Lau explained that some long-established restaurants may close due to aging founders or an inability to modify their business models, viewing this as a commercial decision.
SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK) announced that in June 2025, its contracted sales amounted to around RMB2.321 billion, down 29.88% YoY, while its contracted sold area amounted to around 190,200 sq.m. The average selling price was RMB12,200 per sq.m. The group's aggregated contracted sales for 6M25 amounted to around RMB13.523 billion, down 20.87% YoY, while its aggregated contracted sold area amounted to around 1.1091 million sq.m. The average selling price was RMB12,192 per sq.m.
An audit of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) found that Chery Automobile and BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) (002594.SZ) improperly applied for government subsidies for their sales of environmentally friendly vehicles over a 5-year period ended 2020, involving a total amount of approximately USD53 million (about RMB380 million), accounting for nearly 60% of the total improper subsidy applications, according to Reuters. The audit and published documents by the MIIT show that approximately 21,725 vehicles did not meet the subsidy eligibility criteria, involving a total subsidy amount of about RMB865 million (around USD121 million), with 7,663 Chery vehicles and 4,973 BYD COMPANY's vehicles disqualified from subsidies, the report added.
ByteDance's TikTok is currently reorganizing its US operations, including a major restructuring of its trust and security team and the TikTok Shop, as it waits for the US government's explicit directive on the sale of its US business, according to Nikkei Asia. The reorganization is said to include layoffs at various US offices, which are partly in preparation for a potential spin-off of TikTok's US business, as well as internal adjustments as a result of TikTok Shop's failure to meet certain performance targets.
Ye Jun, Vice President of BABA-W (09988.HK) and former CEO of DingTalk, is leaving the company, and has reportedly completed the resignation approval process, but has not yet left the company, Chinese media quoted sources as saying. BABA-W has not yet responded to the matter.
Friday closings in EUROPE & US
DAX -0.82%, CAC -0.92%, FTSE -1.11%
European markets opened lower and trended lower in the morning and then sideways in the afternoon. Markets reacting to Trump putting 35% tariffs on Canada from August 1 and that he would announce the tariffs to be be imposed on the EU shortly. This was in addition to comments by Jamie Dimon that there was more risk of rate hikes than people appreciated.
Data showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in May vs the forecast 0.1% growth. Sterling traded lower on the news.
BP’s trading update flagged lower oil and gas sales in the second quarter and an after-tax impairment of up to $1.5 billion across its portfolio. BP has been struggling to recalibrate its strategic direction amid underperformance in its share price compared with oil and gas peers, particularly in the U.S. Speculation has been mounting in recent months over whether the company could become an acquisition target.
Italian luxury clothes maker Cucinelli -1.3% despite posting a 10.7% increase in first half revenues, broadly in line with forecasts. Sales rose double digits in America and Asia, while the group confirmed its expectations for annual sales growth of about 10% this year and next.
The UK said it will pump 163 million euros ($190.5 million) into satellite operator Eutelsat, an aspiring rival to Starlink. European governments view Eutelsat as a way to increase sovereign space capabilities and reduce European reliance on US firms for satellite communications and defence. The investment will allow the UK to maintain its stake when France makes a planned 750 million euro cash injection later this year, and brings the total recapitalisation 1.5 billion euros.
DOW -0.63%, NDX -0.22%, S&P -0.33%, Russel 2K -1.26%
US markets opened lower after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada (citing fentanyl as the reason) and threatened higher tariffs across the board. DOW and S&P traded sideways just below flat all day. The NDX traded around flat.
Kraft Heinz 2.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported the consumer product giant may split its grocery business, including Kraft products, into a new entity valued at up to $20 billion.
Banks JPMorgan Chase -0.46%, Citigroup -0.4% Wells Fargo 0.23%, Amex -1.77%
Ecommerce Meta -1.34%, Apple -0.59%, Amazon 1.24%, Netflix -0.44%, Disney -1.3%, Zoom Comm -2.2%, Alphabet 1.46% and Microsoft 0.37%,
Tech NXP Semi -1.83%, Nvidia 0.5%, Micron 1.15%, AMD 1.57%, Skyworks -2.93%
Industrial/Discretionary Boeing 0.33%, Caterpillar -0.59%, Simon Property -1.04%, Kohl’s -0.83%, Gap -1.13%, United Airlines -4.34%, Carnival -1.51%, Wynn Resorts -0.68%,
Auto Ford -1.09%, GM 0.45%, Tesla 1.17%,
Energy Chevron 0.74%, Exxon Mobil 0.44%,
Consumer Staples Campbell Soup 2.46% General Mills 0.43%, JM Smucker 0.1%
DAILY DATA
USD stronger, Bitcoin 1.01% at US$118,791.22 Monday morning Asia having broken US$119k, VIX 3.93% at 16.4,
US T10 up 7 bpts to 4.417% and T2 up 2 bpts at 3.889% T30 up 9 bpts at 4.954%
OIL Brent 2.51%, WTI 2.82% as investors weighed a tight market against a potential large surplus this year forecast by the IEA, while U.S. tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia were also in focus.
Gold 1.34%, Silver 4.74%, Copper -0.13% Platinum 4.25%, Palladium 7.65%.