Asian Macro Initial Thoughts: Expect +VE but cautious trading ahead of US Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending and Consumer Sentiment. And Tariffs may be delayed. Japan data mixed.

NZX choppy open but now trending higher and broke the 12,500 resistance at the second attempt. Business confidence higher than F/cast. Currently up 28pts 0.22% at 12,508

Overview.
The revision lower of US GDP growth is a concern, US consumers, a major driver of the US economy are turning cautious, that and continuing claims rising are a concern for the Fed and would suggest rate cuts but today we get more insight into the inflation side of the dual mandate. Recent mixed data underlines why the Fed is right to wait and watch the trend of data rather than reacting to every data point. Trump’s sniping at Powell and the FOMC (because rate decision are the committees decision not just Powell’s. News that Trump may delay the July 9 Tariff deadline are another reason for the Fed to wait and watch.

Worth noting that FedEx freight volumes from China to the US have “deteriorated sharply” in May after Trump launched his trade war. The company said that it expected trade between the countries to remain “pressured” in the current June-to-August quarter. “We just simply cannot predict how that is going to play out,” Brie Carere, chief customer officer, told investors on a results call, adding that the China-US route represented 2.5% of the company’s revenue and that the trade lane was its most profitable intercontinental route.

Lutnick says China trade deal now signed and that they are close to a deal with India after which they will lay out a structure for the other countries by July 9. But the Whitehouse press sec already said that Trump may delay the July 9 deadline. Another sign of the disarray with the administration. Also worth remembering that President Xi has to sign off too before the deal is actually finalised and we have not heard from Beijing on that yet.

Earnings continue Apogee Enterprises Q1

Housekeeping

Yesterday afternoon I was on RTHK’s The Close, with Nitan Dialis and Tiffany Watkins Ahern, Senior Partner at Penta. We discussed M&A in Asia and the outlook for the markets
Click the link to listen to the programme

https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/the_close

This Monday I will be on RTHK’s Money Talk with host Chloe Feng and Le Xia, Asia Chief Economist at BBVA Research. Drop me or them a line if there is a topic you would like discussed.

Last week I was on with Kerry Craig Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Discussing the impact on markets and investor portfolio’s from Trump’s bombing of the Iranian Nuclear Facilities.
Click the link below if you have a topic you would like discussed to just want to listen to the programme use the link below.

https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/money_talk

Looking for good Independent Research, Showcase Events, Introductions & Marketplace, Reports, blogs, trials, podcasts then click the link

https://www.eri-c.com/

It is MiFID II compliant, you can try Before You Buy, there is Research Evalution. and information can be shared across team or firm. It has Different Views at the Best Price. Buyers transact at offered prices or with vendor permission, by agreement. ERIC's industry low commission rates - charged only to sellers - allow both buyers and sellers to realise better net pricing simulataneously. The differentiated price discovery mechanism entertains private bids and negotiation (on or offline) to broaden demand capture and liquidity.

If you have any problems connecting, call or message me and I will sort your issue out.

For Example last recently Russell Napier was in conversation with Andy Rothman on the topic of Will Trump make China great again. Russell has covered Asia for year and Andy has a unique perspective on China, having lived and worked there for more than 20 years as an American diplomat and a sell-side macro strategist. Andy first went to China as a student in 1980, returned as Foreign Service Officer in 1984, joined CLSA in Shanghai in 2000, and then went to the buy side with Matthews Asia in 2014. This year, Andy founded Sinology LLC, advising institutional investors and corporate directors on the risks and opportunities in the Chinese economy, and on navigating the rising tensions in US-China relations. This follows on from Andy’s recent webinar after a recent visit to China in early April you can still go to the website to listen to that recording if you didn’t hear it live.

Mark Tinker recently posted the Latest thoughts from Market Thinker - 'The Ratchet and the Sausage Machine’. 'Trump the deal maker has learned the hard way that, to use arch Politician Tony Blair’s favourite phrase, “ Politics is the art of the possible”. Anyone who has seen the television series House of Cards will recognise the compromises and political wrangling needed to pass a Bill in the House. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was primarily about preventing the sunsetting of the tax cuts that he passed in his previous term and thus was not so much about cutting taxes as preventing them rising.’

Musk’s DOGE campaign was about highlighting the ‘fat’ in the existing administration and hence make the case for Trumps Big Beautiful Bill. Which additionally Trump considers to benefit his enemies.

The result is a radical and possible stimulatory policy, with an unproven outcome but the covid experience suggests that giving more cash to US individuals results in them spending. He also touches on the implications of Section 899 which allows the US to tax foreigners if Trump feels their governments do things he doesn’t like.

You can find the whole article here

Market opening indications and data

New Zealand
NZX choppy open but now trending higher and broke the 12,500 resistance at the second attempt. Business confidence higher than F/cast. Currently up 28pts 0.22% at 12,508
Data Out after the open
Consumer Confidence Jun 98.8 vs 92.9 May (F/cast is 91)

Australia - No Data Due
ASX to open higher, futures indicate +51pts 0.6% at 8,584 with Energy higher overnight, miners mixed but Tech +VE. But upside limited as a number of firms go Ex Dividend.
Ex Div includes APA Group (ASX: APA), Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI), Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), Dexus (ASX: DXS), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), and Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) along with others.

Japan
Market to open higher
Nikkei 225 Futures indicate up 280pts 0.71% at 39,780
Chicago Futures up175pts 0.44% at 40,010
Yen 144.48at the close in US. Opening 144.51 in early Asian trading
Data out 30 minutes pre market
Unemployment Rate May 2.5vs 2.5% Apr (F/cast was 2.5%)
Jobs/Applications Ratio May 1.24 vs 1.26 Apr (F/cast was 1.26)
Tokyo Core CPI Jun 3.1% YoY vs 3.6% May (F/cast was 3.4%)
Tokyo CPI Ex-Food and Energy Jun 3.1% vs 3.3% May revised from 2.1% (F/cast was1.9%)
Tokyo CPI Jun 3.1% YoY vs 3.4% May (F/cast was 3.5%)
Out 10 minutes before the open
Retail Sales May 2.2% YoY vs 3.3% Apr (F/cast was 3%)
Retail Sales May -0.2% MoM vs 0.5% Apr (F/cast was 0.4%)
Lunchtime
3 month Bill Auction vs 0.4207% prior

S Korea - No Data Due
Market to open open with positive sentiment although the weak USD a concern.
Thursday markets closed lower trade volume was moderate at 451.12 million shares worth 16.62 trillion won ($12.2 billion), with decliners outnumbering gainers 724 to 180. Foreigners and institutions net sold while individuals net bought. The local currency was trading at 1,356.90 won against the greenback at 3:30 pm. Thursday, up 5.5 won from the previous session.

Taiwan
Market to open higher with the rebound in tech in the US but weak USD a concern.
Data Due on the open
Consumer Confidence Jun vs 64.94 May (F/cast is 62)

China
Market to open lower
Golden Dragon Index closed -22pts -0.29% at 7,359
Spot USD/CNY opening up 0.0004 0.01% at 7.1644
Data Due on the open
Industrial Profits (YTD) May YoY vs 1.4% Apr (F/cast is 1.5%
After Market
Current Account Final Q1 vs $163.8B Q4 (F/cast is $165.
National People’s Congress Standing Party finishes.

Hong Kong - No Data Due
HSI to open higher
ADR’s closed 190pts 0.77% at 24,515 but only SHKP, CCB, HK EX, AIA and Xiaomi in the green.
HK Futures are indicating up 135pts 0.6% at 24,461
Turnover on Thurssday vs HK$267.801B Friday
HKMA continues to defend the USD/HKD peg.
Data Due After Market Thursday
Balance of Trade May HK$-27.3B vs HK$-16B (F/cast is HK$-18B)
Exports May 15.5% YoY vs 14.7% Apr
Imports May 18.9% YoY vs 15.8% Apr
Exports to regional partners were the driver.

Macau - Data Due after market
Unemployment Rate May vs 1.9% Apr
Could get
Balance of Trade May vs MOP -9.4B Apr (F/cast is

Singapore - Data Due around Noon
Export Prices May YoY vs -6.8% Apr (F/cast is -8%)
Import Prices May YoY vs -7.9% Apr (F/cast is -9%)
PPI May YoY vs -1.1% Apr (F/cast is -1.3%)

Malaysia - Data Due late morning
PPI May YoY vs -3.4% Apr (F/cast is -4%)

Indonesia - No Data Due

Philippines - Data
Balance of Trade May vs $-3.495B Apr (F/cast is $-4B)
Exports May YoY vs 7% Apr
Imports May YoY vs -7.2% Apr
Later
Consumer Confidence Q2 vs -13 Q1 (F/cast is -10)

Thailand - No Data Due

Myanmar - No Data Scheduled this week
Myanmar’s junta chief said that the country plans to hold elections in December and January next year, state media reported yesterday. The military deposed Myanmar’s civilian government in a 2021 coup that sparked a many-sided civil war, but has promoted its election plans as a pathway to peace. With members of the former government locked away, opposition groups set to boycott the vote and huge tracts of the country controlled by anti-junta rebels, observers say a fair poll is impossible.

Cambodia - No Data Scheduled this week
Vietnam - No Date Scheduled this week

India - Data Due After Market
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20 Jun vs $698.95B prior
M3 Money Supply 13 Jun YoY vs 9.5% prior

Europe
Eurozone Economic Sentiment, Consumer Confidence Final, Consumer Confidence Expectations, Industrial Sentiment, Selling Price Expectations, Services Sentiment,
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Germany No Data Due
France Inflation Rate, PPI
United Kingdom Car Production out pre market Asia May -32.8% YoY vs -15.8% Apr (F/cast was -9%),
In European morning Current Account, Business Investment, GDP Growth Rate Final

United States
Futures Dow 52pts 0.1%, S&P 0.1% and NDX 0.12%
After Market
Nike +10% after market having reported better than expected fiscal Q4 earnings and revenue. It expects tariffs will cost it $1 billion in the current fiscal year before price increases and supply chain shifts. It took its biggest financial hit yet from its turnaround plan during the period, but expects sales and profit declines to moderate moving forward.
Data Due Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index, Fed’s Hammack Speaks, Michigan Data Final (Consumer Sentiment, 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Consumer Expectations, Current Conditions, Inflation Expectations), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts.

HEADLINES & NEWS

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
The consumer watchdog has launched a landmark lawsuit alleging millions of Australians were misled by a series of advertisements suggesting the gas that flows into household heaters and stovetops could be “renewable” within a generation

CommBank unleashes ‘bot army’ with Aussie accents to trap scammers. Thousands of bots will receive calls from fraudsters, with computer-generated voices mimicking Australian accents and speech patterns wasting scammers’ time.

Chalmers hits China-linked companies with landmark lawsuit over crucial military minerals. The US and its allies are increasingly alarmed over China’s control of the global trade in minerals needed for military hardware such as warplanes and missiles.

Billionaire James Packer backing Leo’s supermarket site development. Kew’s boutique supermarket will be transformed into luxury housing and gourmet-produce stores in a joint venture, while plans for Leo’s Heidelberg store when it closes have yet to be revealed.

JAPAN
Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa reiterated the country’s opposition to the 25% tariffs by the US on cars, calling them unacceptable. Japanese automakers make roughly 3.3 million cars in the US a year, far more than the 1.37 million shipped to the country, Akazawa told reporters ahead of his seventh round of trade negotiations with US counterparts.

Japan is driving Asia's M&A rebound in 2025 with a record $232 billion worth of deals in the first half, and bankers expect the trend to sustain fuelled by multi-billion dollar take-private arrangements, outbound investments and private equity activity. Management reforms to tackle chronic low valuations among Japanese firms are spurring a flurry of foreign and activist investor interest, while Japan's low interest rates - which support deals - mean the appetite for more deals remains strong, bankers say. The deals involving Japanese companies more than tripled in value in the first half, while in the same period Asia M&A value reached $650 billion, more than double the amount year-on-year, LSEG data showed. Moreover, Japan has been relatively insulated from global volatility despite the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, helping to underpin deals momentum, they say. A cohort of Toyota Motor (7203.T) group companies and telecoms giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (9432.T) took private listed subsidiaries in deals worth $34.6 billion and $16.5 billion respectively, among the largest transactions globally. "There are many other deals like these on the way and their number is increasing," said Kei Nitta, global head of M&A at Nomura Securities. SoftBank Group (9984.T) also led a new fundraising of up to $40 billion into ChatGPT maker OpenAI in the biggest private tech funding round in history. The long-standing trend of Japanese firms looking abroad for growth opportunities in the face of a shrinking home market has continued despite heightened uncertainty in the global economy. Japanese financial institutions, such as insurer Dai-ichi Life (8750.T) and Nomura Holdings (8604.T) announced major deals and bankers say demand remains robust across industries. "Debates over tariffs and foreign conflicts mean that some investment decisions are taking longer than usual and some customers have become more cautious, but we consider appetite for investment itself to remain very strong," Nitta said.

Foreigners divested Japanese stock for the first time in 12 weeks in the week through June 21 on caution over the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on Japanese oil imports and inflation. They sold a net 524.3-billion-yen ($3.62 billion) worth of Japanese stocks, logging their first weekly net sales since March 29, data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed on Thursday.

The Japanese government is seeking to provide support for video game production costs and improve working conditions in the anime industry under a five-year plan to further boost the country's entertainment sector, a key source of exports. The plan, announced by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, also includes anti-piracy measures such as stronger investigations and enforcement. The ministry said Japan's overseas sales in the entertainment field reached 5.8 trillion yen in 2023, up from 1 trillion yen in 2010, making it the nation's second-largest export industry after automobiles, with shipments totaling over 21 trillion yen. The government has set a target of increasing overseas sales in the entertainment industry to 20 trillion yen by 2033. In the gaming sector -- a field generating over 2 trillion yen in sales abroad -- the government is considering production-cost support for companies aiming to expand internationally. In the anime sector, which is facing a shortage of skilled workers, the government plans to introduce mechanisms to address stagnant wages and long working hours to prevent talent from leaving the industry. Damage to the Japanese industry caused by pirated content worldwide, meanwhile, is estimated at around 2 trillion yen. To counter its spread, the government will strengthen cooperation with industry groups that include anime firms as members.

SOUTH KOREA
President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday called for "fair growth" as a way to address persistent recession fears and growing economic inequality, urging the opposition to support his administration’s proposed 30.5 trillion won ($22.4 billion) extra budget. In his first parliamentary address since taking office through an early election three weeks ago, the liberal president said the budget centers on universal cash handouts to all 52 million South Koreans — a move he framed as a crucial step toward bridging the socio-economic divide. Of the 30.5 trillion won, the government proposes doling out 13 trillion won worth of universal cash grants. These would amount to between 150,000 won and 520,000 won, depending on an individual's income level and living conditions. Lee also suggested an additional budget of 3.9 trillion won to stimulate investment in infrastructure, construction, artificial intelligence, renewable energy and startups. Also, 5 trillion won will be spent on debt write-offs for some 1.1 million people unable to repay their debts, and on measures for job security.

The Korea Trade Commission (KTC) determined after investigation that stainless steel plates imported from China are being dumped, causing substantial harm to South Korea's domestic industries, according to Yonhap News Agency. Therefore, the KTC decided to recommend to the Minister of Finance to impose an anti-dumping duty of 21.62% for a period of 5 years. South Korean stainless steel manufacturer, DKC, filed a complaint with the KTC in June 2024 saying that the dumping of stainless steel plates imported from China was causing losses to the company, and requesting the imposition of anti-dumping duties, the report added. The KTC conducted a preliminary investigation, and initially determined the existence of dumping. Since March 2025, the South Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance has been imposing a provisional anti-dumping duty of 21.62% on China.

The Supreme Court is set to deliver the final verdict on Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong next month, as he was acquitted in both the first and second trials on charges related to a 2015 merger case, sources said Thursday. The ruling, scheduled for July 17, comes four years and 10 months after Lee was first brought to trial and about five months after the appellate court upheld his acquittal.

South Korea's central bank said Thursday it will sell up to 7.2 trillion won ($5.31 billion) worth of monetary stabilization bonds in July. The planned issuance represents a 600 billion-won increase from a month earlier, according to the Bank of Korea. As policy tools devised to absorb excess liquidity in the market, MSBs are sold to financial institutions and individuals.

South Korea has approved the decommissioning of the country's first commercial nuclear reactor, the now-defunct Kori-1 unit, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission said Thursday, also marking its first-ever decommissioning of a reactor. Unit 1 of the Kori nuclear power plant, located in the southeastern city of Busan, was permanently shut down in June 2017 after operating for about 40 years since April 1978. In May last year, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power began chemical decontamination to remove radioactive materials from the reactor, marking a crucial first step in the decommissioning process. The KHNP said the successful dismantling of the Kori-1 reactor will be significant for the nuclear and related industries as it will open up new business opportunities in the global reactor decommissioning market.

Samsung Electronics said Thursday that its digital key feature embedded in Samsung Wallet will be available in 17 Mercedes-Benz models, marking a significant expansion of its smart mobility ecosystem. The supported models include high-end vehicles such as the Maybach, AMG and the latest W214 E-Class and W206 C-Class, which are slated for release in Korea in July. The digital key service will be compatible with select Galaxy devices, including the Galaxy S21 Ultra and Plus series, Galaxy Z Fold3 and newer, S25 Edge and Z Fold SE. The digital key allows drivers to unlock their cars without a physical key and even start the engine remotely via the app — all without entering the vehicle.

More Korean banks are racing to take a preemptive lead in stablecoins, with the push spilling into equity markets and triggering heightened regulatory warnings amid growing volatility. The frenzy reflects a broader shift as financial and tech players vie for dominance in the future of digital payments. KB Kookmin Bank, Hana Bank and internet-only Kakao Bank each filed trademark applications this week related to stablecoins, according to the Korean Intellectual Property Office. KB Kookmin led the move, applying for 32 trademarks including “KBKRW” and “KRWKB," classified under cryptocurrency-based transfers and financial services. Hana Bank followed with 16 applications, such as “HanaKRW” and “KRWHana.” Kakao Bank, the first internet-only lender to join the stablecoin race, filed for 12 cryptocurrency-related trademarks. Banks are accelerating Korea’s stablecoin race, which kicked off last week when Kakao Pay, the payments arm of tech giant Kakao, filed for 18 trademark rights. In the non-financial sector, game developer Nexus has also entered the fray, registering a won-based stablecoin, “KRWx,” on the Binance blockchain (BNB Chain) and filing for a corresponding trademark in Korea. Momentum behind won-pegged stablecoins has been building in recent weeks, with the new administration signaling support for institutionalization. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea is backing legislation that would allow not only banks but also non-bank institutions to issue won-based stablecoins, provided they meet capital requirements such as at least 500 million won ($368,000) in equity or 1 billion won in total assets. Amid the crypto surge, regulators are urging caution. In a report Wednesday, the Bank of Korea warned that hasty adoption of stablecoins could trigger systemic instability.

TAIWAN
Next month would be “national unity month” to showcase Taiwan’s resolve amid high military tensions and fears of war across the Taiwan Strait, President William Lai said yesterday. All Taiwanese must play their part in civil defense to ensure preparedness and unity, Lai said at the fourth meeting of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee at the Presidential Office in Taipei. The administration plans to hold the 41st annual Han Kuang exercises — the largest ever — and the first-ever urban resilience drills concurrently next month, he said. The armed forces would hone their operational capabilities during the military drills, while civilians would practice civil defense in the resilience exercises, he said. The resilience exercises would test the ability of local governments to mount a joint response across jurisdictions, as well as alongside the armed forces, during a contingency, Lai said. The exercises would allow the nation to display its resolve to defend itself against aggressors and boost the resilience of society as a whole, he said.

The New Taiwan dollar yesterday rallied to its strongest in three years amid inflows to the nation’s stock market and broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Exporter sales of the US currency and a repatriation of funds from local asset managers also played a role, said two traders, who asked not to be identified as they were not authorized to speak publicly. State-owned banks were seen buying the greenback yesterday, but only at a moderate scale, the traders said. The local currency gained 0.77 percent, outperforming almost all of its Asian peers, to close at NT$29.165 per US dollar in Taipei trading yesterday.

The NT dollar’s gain was lower than the yen’s 0.87 percent rise, but ahead of increases of 0.59 percent for the won, 0.48 percent for the Singaporean dollar and 0.06 percent for the yuan, central bank data showed. There were rumors in the market that the central bank had suggested some large exporters to sell US dollars after 10am to prevent concentrated buying of the NT dollar during the critical market opening hours and avoid strengthening the currency’s appreciation expectation, local media reported. Market watchers are monitoring whether the central bank would intervene to defend the NT$29 mark against the US dollar after the local currency surpassed NT$29.5 mark early this week.

Czech officials have confirmed that Chinese agents surveilled Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim during her visit to Prague in March 2024 and planned a collision with her car as part of an “unprecedented” provocation by Beijing in Europe. Czech Military Intelligence learned that their Chinese counterparts attempted to create conditions to carry out a demonstrative incident involving Hsiao, which “did not go beyond the preparation stage,” agency director Petr Bartovsky told Czech Radio in a report yesterday. In addition, a Chinese diplomat ran a red light to maintain surveillance of the Taiwanese delegation, the report said. These attempts took place during Hsiao’s first overseas trip after she and then President-elect Lai Ching-te won the presidential election but before they were sworn in. During the visit, Hsiao met and took photos with Czech Senate President Miloš Vystrčil, a meeting said to have angered China. Local intelligence agents were prepared to intervene if necessary, according to Czech Radio, adding that Hsiao was never in immediate danger.

Japanese Representative Takayuki Kobayashi yesterday said that his visit to Taiwan was aimed at exploring the development of “non-red” supply chains, as well as boosting bilateral ties to prevent Taiwan from being isolated. Kobayashi, who is a former minister of state for economic security, has met with President William Lai, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu, former president Tsai Ing-wen and other Taiwanese dignitaries on his visit. He arrived on Wednesday and is to depart today.

The Executive Yuan yesterday approved a plan to develop central Taiwan as a core manufacturing region for smart technologies and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) centered around a proposed national center for precision and innovative technologies. With Aerospace Industrial Development Corp (AIDC) headquartered in Taichung and Boise, Idaho-based Micron Technology active in the region, as well as the plans TSMC has to expand there, Taichung would become a manufacturing hub for precision machinery and smart technology, Changhua County would develop into a manufacturing cluster for metal-based products and automotive components, Nantou County would focus on smart agriculture and Yunlin County would concentrate on applying smart technology to husbandry and aquaculture, the National Development Council (NDC) said. The Executive Yuan has forwarded the plan to Premier Cho Jung-tai

WinWay Technology yesterday said it aims to grow revenue by a double-digit percentage this year on the back of strong demand for advanced packaging and testing services used in artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) applications. The growing popularity of AI applications has helped drive demand for WinWay’s services, company chairman Mark Wang told a news conference in Taipei, adding that he remains cautiously optimistic about the company’s revenue prospects in the second half of the year. “Based on the information we collected, we believe AI chip testing surface demand would still be tremendous in the second half of this year. We are seeing more rush orders coming in,” Wang said. Aside from rapid AI proliferation, a major chip packaging technology upgrade by tier-one customers would also help stimulate demand at the end of this year for WinWay’s advanced burn-in testing services, or functional burn-in testing, he said. The company has obtained numerous new design projects and would start shipping products to customers in the third or fourth quarter, he said.

The sharp appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar has affected Arbor Technology profit, as the local currency’s rise against the US dollar is too rapid for the company to respond, the industrial computer maker said yesterday. “If the currency’s appreciation is gradual, we can still make adjustments, such as negotiating with clients, but if it rises too quickly, we really cannot handle it and end up with exchange losses,” Arbor chairman Eric Lee said after an annual shareholders’ meeting in Taipei. Lee did not disclose the amount of foreign exchange losses. The company reported a loss per share of NT$0.21 in the first quarter. Arbor’s products mainly comprise industrial computers and motherboards, embedded systems, in-vehicle computers, touch-screen PCs, medical computers and retail automation equipment, the company’s Web site showed.

Taiwan’s commercial property market held firm in the second quarter, underpinned by large-scale acquisitions by tech firms even as developers pulled back on land purchases amid tighter credit and macroeconomic uncertainty, Savills Taiwan said yesterday. Deals involving commercial assets priced at more than NT$300 million (US$10.29 million) totaled NT$30.7 billion in the second quarter, up 5.5 percent from a year earlier, Savills said in a report. That lifted transaction value in the first half of the year to NT$81.7 billion, a 13 percent annual increase, driven by strategic bets by the tech sector, it said.

CHINA
In response to questions about the approvals of rare earth exports to the EU, He Yadong, spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC), answered that China has always attached great importance to maintaining the stability and security of global production and supply chains. In accordance with laws and regulations, China has been accelerating the review of export license applications related to rare earths, and has already approved a certain number of compliance applications, He stressed. The approval process for compliance applications will continue to be strengthened.

The new generation of domestic general-purpose processor “Loongson 3C6000” independently developed in China was released in Beijing today, according to CCTV. Its performance is equivalent to the level of mainstream products in the market in 2023 or 2024. The newly released Loongson 3C6000 adopts China's independently designed instruction system architecture without relying on any foreign licensed technology or any offshore supply chain. The CPU is a new-generation general-purpose processor independently developed and controlled by China, and it is able to satisfy the computing needs in multiple scenarios, such as general computation, smart computation, storage, industrial control and workstation.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has issued an urgent notice regarding multiple incidents of power banks and other lithium battery products carried by passengers catching fire or emitting smoke on flights since the beginning of this year. According to the notice, passengers will be prohibited starting this Saturday (28th) from bringing power banks that lack a 3C certification, have unclear 3C certification, or have previously been recalled on domestic flights.

A senior executive from Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the world’s largest producer of batteries for electric vehicles, urged authorities on the mainland to intervene in the price war that is upending the market for new energy cars. Ni Jun, CATL’s chief manufacturing officer, said on Wednesday the brutal discount war would not end if Beijing remained on the sidelines. “One big player cannot always lower prices to gain market share while driving out all other small rivals,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin. “If it continues to do so without proper regulatory oversight, all of its rivals will not survive.”

Nike (NKE.N) said on Thursday it would cut its reliance on production in China to mitigate the impact from U.S. tariffs on imports, and forecast a smaller drop in first-quarter revenue than expected by analysts, sending its shares up 11% in extended trading. President Trump's sweeping tariffs on key trading partners could add around $1 billion to Nike's costs, company executives said on a post-earnings call after the sportswear giant topped estimates for fourth-quarter results. Consumer goods is one of the areas most affected by the tariff dispute between the world's two largest economies, but the executives said they were focused on cutting the financial pain. China, subject to the biggest tariff increases imposed by Trump, accounts for about 16% of the shoes Nike imports into the United States, chief financial officer Matthew Friend said. But the company aims to cut the figure to a "high single-digit percentage range" by end-May 2026 by shifting production to other countries. "We will optimize our sourcing mix and allocate production differently across countries to mitigate the new cost headwind into the United States," said Friend.

Nike will also "evaluate" corporate cost reductions to deal with the tariff impact, Friend said. The company has already announced price increases for some products in the U.S. "The tariff impact is significant. However, I expect others in the sportswear industry will also raise prices, so Nike may not lose much share in the U.S.," said David Swartz, analyst at Morningstar Research. Nike forecast first-quarter revenue to fall in the mid-single digits, slightly better than estimates of a 7.3% drop, as CEO Elliott Hill's strategy to focus product innovation and marketing around sports begins to pay off. The running category returned to growth in the fourth quarter, Friend said. Having lost share in the fast-growing market, Nike has invested heavily in running shoes such as Pegasus and Vomero, while scaling back production of sneakers such as the Air Force 1. Under Hill, who joined in October last year, Nike is investing more into marketing focused on sports, with marketing spending up 15% year-on-year in the quarter. On Thursday, Nike hosted an attempt by sponsored athlete Faith Kipyegon to run a mile in under four minutes. Paced by other star athletes in the glitzy, live-streamed event in a Paris stadium, Kipyegon fell short of the goal but set a new unofficial record.

HONG KONG
Earnings
BOSIDENG (03998.HK) announced its financial results for the fiscal year ending in March. Revenue reached RMB25.902 billion, up 11.6% YoY; gross profit was RMB14.84 billion, up 7.3%. The company recorded a net profit of RMB3.514 billion, growing by 14.3%, with EPS at RMB31.58 cents. A final DPS of HKD22 cents was declared.

Economy
Hong Kong's equity capital markets activity roared back to life in the first half of 2025, driven by global investors sharpening focus on China as the city awaits the possible Shein initial public offering in the second half. Big ticket capital raisings and a rush of "A to H" share deals, where companies already listed on mainland Chinese markets list in Hong Kong, helped revive flatlining markets and led to the strongest first half since 2021. +VE HK Exchange.

Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department announced that the average wage rate, as measured by the wage index, increased by 3.5% in nominal terms in March 2025 over a year earlier. About 62% of the companies reported an increase in average wage rates in March 2025 compared with a year ago. A total of 34% of the companies recorded a decrease in average wage rates over the same period. The remaining 4% reported virtually no change in average wage rates. After discounting the changes in consumer prices as measured by the. Consumer Price Index (A), the overall average wage rate for all the selected industry sections surveyed increased by 1.6% in real terms in March 2025 over a year earlier.

Organized by the Hong Kong Retail Management Association (HKRMA), the Hong Kong Shopping Festival will be held from July 1 to August 31. As indicated by the HKRMA, more than 180 brands and around 5,000 stores will participate in the festival, along with 300 promotions valued at more than HKD1.9 billion in total across 13 platforms.

Hong Kong's former Chief Executive CY Leung wrote on social media that the shop vacancy rate already reached 11.8% at the end of last year, a record high in forty years as indicated by a report issued by the Rating and Valuation Department in March. In contrast, the private residential vacancy rate stood at only 4.5% at the end of last year. Leung stressed that Hong Kong's retail property market has undergone structural changes due to well-known reasons, and hence society must make structural adjustments correspondingly; otherwise, the pressure building up in the market will never ease. He suggested that landlords should follow the market and cut rents decisively. By renting out the shops first, they could revitalize the market. When tenants' businesses thrive, there will be opportunities for them to raise rents in the future, a win-win approach where landlords and tenants can work together for mutual benefit.

IPO
Eternal Beauty(06883.HK), which listed Thursday (26 June) opened at $2.58, down 10.4% from the listing price of $2.88. Peaking/ bottoming at $2.79/2.25, the stock closed at $2.4, down 16.7% from the listing price of $2.88, on volume of 173.64 million shares and turnover of $441.11 million. Excluding handling fee, the book loss was $480 per board lot size of 1,000 shares.

Zhou Liu Fu(06168.HK), which listed Thursday (26 June) opened at $26.7, up 11.3% from the listing price of $24. Peaking/ bottoming at $30/26.7, the stock closed at $30, up 25% from the listing price of $24, on volume of 35.21 million shares and turnover of $957.11 million. Excluding handling fee, the book gain was $600 per board lot size of 100 shares.

SAINT BELLA(02508.HK), which listed Thursday (26 June) opened at $8.45, up 28.4% from the listing price of $6.58. Peaking/ bottoming at $11/8.45, the stock closed at $8.8, up 33.7% from the listing price of $6.58, on volume of 94.41 million shares and turnover of $828.33 million. Excluding handling fee, the book gain was $1,110 per board lot size of 500 shares.

Buybacks
BABA-W (09988.HK) disclosed in its statement that it had repurchased on June 25 a total of 694,400 shares of the company on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at a price range of USD14.28 to USD14.67 per share, involving approximately USD9.99 million. Since the ordinary resolution was passed on August 22, 2024, the company has cumulatively repurchased approximately 338 million shares, accounting for 1.8% of its share capital.

MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) announced it spent a total of $4.12 million to repurchase 250,000 shares, on Thursday at a price per share of between $16.46 and $16.5. Since the repurchase resolution was approved on 12 June, MENGNIU DAIRY has repurchased a total of 2.3 million shares, accounting for 0.059% of its issued shares.

HSI Short Selling Thursday 14.8% vs 14.2% Wednesday
Top shorts Henderson Land (12) 50%, CM Bank (3968) 42%, CK Asset (1113) 42%, Bud APAC (1876) 41%, SHKP (16) 40%, Chow Tai Fook (1929) 37%, Zijin Mining (2899) 35%, OOIL (316) 33%, HK & China Gas (3) 31%, Sinopec (386) 30%, Li Auto (2015) 30%, Shenzhou (2313) 29%, MTRC (66) 29%, WH Group (288) 29%, Wuxi Apptec (2359) 28%, Ping An (2318) 28%, China Overseas (688) 27%, Hengan (1044) 26%, China Shenhua (1088) 25%, Nongfu Spring (9633) 25%.

WATCH
CHINA POWER (02380.HK) announced that the combined total electricity sold by the Company and its subsidiaries in May 2025 amounted to 10,286,324MWh, representing a decrease of 10.16% compared with the same period last year, while the combined total electricity sold for the first five months of 2025 was 51,237,216MWh, representing a decrease of 2.30% compared with the same period last year.

MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK) has been progressing with works to further upgrade the 5G mobile network in MTR stations since last year. 3.3 and 3.5 GHz, i.e. 5G “Golden Spectrum”, had been added to eight MTR stations for passengers to enjoy a faster and smoother mobile service at these stations and during the connecting journeys. Leveraging the high capacity, high speed and low latency of the 5G “Golden Spectrum”, MTR CORPORATION will introduce large-scale live stream and interactive advertisements as well as AI games in four stations where passengers can interact with brands.

China Tourism Group Hotel has announced a strategic investment in Argyle Hotel Group. Through this strategic investment, China Tourism Group Hotel aims to leverage the strengths of an international brand and the resources of a central state-owned enterprise platform to create a brand-new strategic landscape in the mid-to-high-end hotel sector. CHINA TRAVEL HK (00308.HK) +86% having opened flat Thursday morning (26th) until around 11:30 am when it was suddenly hyped up. It once surged by nearly 1.8 times after midday to an over six-and-a-half-year high of HKD2.99. It sold down into the close.

CHINA TRAVEL HK (00308.HK) voluntarily announced that, in order to focus on development strategy and optimize the Company’s business structure, it conducts a strategic review of the Company’s portfolio of businesses from time to time. No decision has yet been made as to any proposal and there is no assurance that the process of the strategic review will lead to any transaction being announced or concluded. The stock closed at HKD1.99 on the last trading day (26th), rising by HKD0.92, or 86%, with a trading volume of 3.483 billion shares and a turnover of HKD7.521 billion.

Ant Group is promoting AI healthcare, and released its AI healthcare app “AQ” today (26th), which provides hundreds of AI functions such as health popularization, medical consultation, report analysis and health profile. The app also efficiently connects more than 5,000 hospitals, nearly 1 million doctors and nearly 200 AI Doctor Agents and other professional medical services. The app is now available on all major app stores. AQ provides personalized health profile service, which can record information such as medical record, medication, exercise and diet, according to the introduction. Meanwhile, AQ cooperated with health management devices such as YUYUE MEDICAL(002223.SZ) and SINOCARE(300298.SZ), and connected with wearable devices such as Vivo, Huawei and Apple which can provide users with customized health advice based on information such as blood sugar, sleep and exercise.

China is relaxing its ban on urea exports, potentially alleviating the surge in international urea prices due to tensions in the Middle East, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported. China will loosen fertilizer export restrictions starting this month, but will still impose quota limits on Chinese companies and, in some cases, adhere to minimum shipment prices. Exports to India will continue to be curbed.

Yang Jun has been appointed as a Party Committee Member of BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)(601988.SH) according to the Shanghai Securities News. Yang had previously served as the General Manager of the Group Asset Management Department at CCB (00939.HK) (601939.SH) with management experience in both local branches and headquarters business departments of CCB.

The sales targets for Xiaomi YU7 during its initial sales period have been exposed, according to posts by mainland netizens. Images circulating showed that each salesperson is expected to achieve a sales target of 40 units of Xiaomi YU7 within the first 72 hours. With approximately 300 Xiaomi stores, and around 10 salespeople per store, the goal is to sell 120,000 units during the initial sales period. Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, will be officially launched tonight (26th) at 7 PM, offering three versions: Standard, Pro, and Max.

XPENG-W (09868.HK) announced that its global flagship pure electric MPV, the XPeng X9, has officially launched in Indonesia with a starting price of IDR990 million (around HKD480,000). In addition, the right-hand drive version of the XPeng X9 will commence local production in Jakarta this July, marking XPENG-W's first overseas localized production project in Indonesia.

Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices were almost flat in May MoM according to official data. An official index measuring secondary home prices inched up by 0.03% in May from a month earlier, the Rating and Valuation Department said on Thursday. In April, the gauge rose 0.35% from March. In the first five months of the year, second-hand home prices declined by 0.9%. They are down 28% from a peak in September 2021. Meanwhile, rental prices rose for the sixth consecutive month. Prices were 0.67% higher on a monthly basis and 2.7% higher year-on-year. Rental prices rose by 1.4% in the first five months of 2025.

China Life Insurance (2628) said it plans to set up a joint venture with China National Nuclear Power and others to invest in nuclear power companies in China. The insurer intends to partner with CNNP, China-Russia Nuclear Industry Fund, Guangzhou Jinhong and CNNC Industry Fund Management Corporation to make equity investments in Chinese firms whose main business is “nuclear power project development, investment, construction, and operation”, according to a filing late Thursday. The initiative is to support the development of clean and low-carbon energy in the country, it said. The total capital contribution by all partners is 1.5 billion yuan (HK$1.64 billion), of which China Life will contribute 1.2 billion yuan, the filing said.

Thursday closings in EUROPE & US
DAX 0.64%, CAC 0.01%, FTSE 0.19%
European markets opened mixed with caution over the Iran/Israel ceasefire and concerns about Trump announcing FOMC Chairman Powell’s replacement by September. German Consumer Confidence slightly weaker than f/cast. Markets traded in tight ranges, the FTSE and DAX in the green all day and the CAC trading around flat. The British Pound has strengthened against the U.S. dollar to reach $1.3735, its highest level since October 2021.

Defence stocks continued to work higher along with miners. Balfour Beatty +2.7% said it won a £833 million contract to help build the world’s first gas-fired power station for Net Zero Teeside Power, a joint venture between BP and Equinor.

Shell confirmed that it was not in talks to acquire BP but market now considers who else might.

H&M reported weaker-than-expected sales in Q2 but pointed to an uptick in demand to kick-start the summer season. Revenues dipped year-on-year to 56.71 billion Swedish krona ($5.99 billion) vs 57.01 billion F/cast.

EQT has sealed a $1.1 billion deal to sell Japanese car parts maker Pioneer to CarUX, an autos tech manufacturer and subsidiary of Taiwan’s Innolux Corporation. Pioneer is a supplier of in-car sound devices and produces audio equipment for carmakers. EQT first invested in Pioneer in 2019. The deal comes amid a string of investment exits for EQT in the past two weeks, including a floating of Nordic specialist mortgage provider Enity on the Nordic stock exchange.

DOW 0.94%, NDX 0.97%, S&P 0.8%, Russel 2K 1.68%
US markets opened slightly higher but initially dipped on weak data; lower than expected GDP growth rate (Final) and Corporate Profits, although Retail Inventories, Durable Goods, Core PCE prices and Pending Home Sales came in stronger. Intial claims flat WoW, better than forecast and the Whitehouse played down the July 9 tariff deadline, which they said the President might extend. But the Dollar index fell to a three year low as Trump continues to try and undermine Powell specifically and the FOMC more broadly.

Some in the market concerned as Zohran Mamdani won the NYC mayoral primary as he has stated to push for tax hikes and tighter regulation threatening their corporate and investment interests.

Markets then worked cautious working better to close to market highs. Stagnation fears seem to be easing. Tech continued lead the market higher, Microsoft is beginning to see real benefits from its heavy investments in OpenAI, according to Morgan Stanley. Defence stocks also +VE. Bitcoin miners rallied after press reported Core Scientific is in talks to be acquired by the AI company CoreWeave, validating the value of mining infrastructure as a high value asset not just for bitcoin but for artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin price stable thought to be because early megawhales are holding on to their coins for longer, waiting to offload them in greater amounts to today’s biggest bitcoin buyers, ETFs and corporate treasuries, according to 10x Research. Stablecoin issuer Circle +12% after losing about 15% earlier over the past two days amid heightened post-IPO volatility and as investors weigh speculation around crypto regulation and the upcoming Fed rate decision. With Circle still hot off its IPO, its investors may have rotated into Coinbase +5% Thursday and up 15% in the same two days Circle fell. Coinbase, has also received a batch of price target increases this week from Wall Street including from Bernstein and Oppenheimer.

Banks JPMorgan Chase 1.65%, Citigroup 2.11% Wells Fargo 1.13%, Amex 0.92
Ecommerce Meta 2.46%, Apple -0.28%, Amazon 2.42%, Netflix 2.46%, Disney 1.71%, Zoom Comm 0.44%, Alphabet 1.71% and Microsoft 1.05%,
Tech NXP Semi 0.93%, Nvidia 0.46%, Micron -0.98%, AMD 0.2%, Skyworks 0.51%
Industrial/Discretionary Boeing 1.85%, Caterpillar 2.77%, Simon Property 2.03%, Kohl’s 2.71%, Gap 2.42%, United Airlines 1.07%, Carnival 2.71%, Wynn Resorts 0.79%,
Auto Ford 1.43%, GM 2.14%, Tesla -0.54%,
Energy Chevron 0.84%, Exxon Mobil 1.49%,
Consumer Staples Campbell Soup -0.71% General Mills -0.61%, JM Smucker 0.44%

DAILY DATA
USD drops to lowest in 3 yrs, Bitcoin -0.68% at 107,060.00, VIX -1% at 16.59,
US T10 -5.1 bpts to 4.242% and T2 -6.6 bpts at 3.713% and T30 -4.3 bpts to 4.801 on concerns about Trump interfering with the FOMC and announcing Powell’s successor in the near future.
OIL Brent 0.07%, WTI 0.49%
Gold 0.2%, Silver 1%, Copper 0.22% Platinum 5.1%, Palladium 8%. But Gold & Silver pulling back after hours.