Asian Macro Initial Thoughts: Japan's Tankan Survey, lots of PMI data in focus as the 2H kicks off. The Big Beautiful Bill struggles as holdouts dig in for deals.
NZX saw a choppy open, initially trading 12,620/605 and then testing up to 12,625; currently up 16 pts 0.13% at 12,619
Overview.
S&P and NDX indexes closed the 1H at record highs, valuations look stretched, uncertainty over a huge number of issues remains; tariffs, Trump’s 'big beautiful bill’, Ukraine & Russia War, Israel & Iran, the faltering Chinese export model and the potential for a global slow down. Worth noting that the S&P was more volatile than normal, something I expect to continue in the 2H. We also have the weakness in the USD to cope with in the 2H.
With that in mind it will be interesting to hear today’s Central Bank speakers; ECB President Lagarde, BoJ Gov Ueda, BoE GOv Bailey and Fed Gov Powell all due to speak.
Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday emphasized how hard it has become for the Federal Reserve to make inflation forecasts amid fast-changing U.S. policy and foreign relations — citing Canada’s recent walk-back on its digital services tax as an example. Bostic said he is therefore focusing on the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers and the actions they are taking, and where he sees risks to the outlook for taming price rises. The U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to have enough clarity on the trajectory of the U.S. economy to justify an interest rate cut in July.
Also worth noting that major bank stocks were higher on Monday after all of them passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test.
For Asia trading volumes likely to light with Hong Kong closed for the Handover Commemoration’s, security likely to be tight but protests are unlikely, especially with rain and thunderstorms forecast.
FT online running today The vulnerabilities holding back Chinese industry. Despite its prowess, China has not been able to overcome dozens of ‘choke points’ that are the essential building blocks of modern manufacturing. It also has Hong Kong’s bull market leaves China behind Mainland equities are flat in first six months of 2025, while Hang Seng index has gained 20%
Housekeeping
Yesterday I was on RTHK’s Money Talk with host Chloe Feng and Le Xia, Asia Chief Economist at BBVA Research. Looking at the outlook for stocks, key being that there is a lot of uncertainty ahead but key it that at least the US and China are talking even if they are telling the market about the details of their agreement. I remain cautious because of the lack of transparency and the fact that trade deals usually take months if not years to agree.
Click the link below if you want to listen to the programme.
https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/money_talk
Last Thursday afternoon I was on RTHK’s The Close, with Nitan Dialis and Tiffany Watkins Ahern, Senior Partner at Penta. We discussed M&A in Asia,
Click the link to listen to the programme
https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/the_close
Looking for good Independent Research, Showcase Events, Introductions & Marketplace, Reports, blogs, trials, podcasts then click the link
https://www.eri-c.com/
It is MiFID II compliant, you can try Before You Buy, there is Research Evalution. and information can be shared across team or firm. It has Different Views at the Best Price. Buyers transact at offered prices or with vendor permission, by agreement. ERIC's industry low commission rates - charged only to sellers - allow both buyers and sellers to realise better net pricing simulataneously. The differentiated price discovery mechanism entertains private bids and negotiation (on or offline) to broaden demand capture and liquidity.
If you have any problems connecting, call or message me and I will sort your issue out.
For Example last recently Russell Napier was in conversation with Andy Rothman on the topic of Will Trump make China great again. Russell has covered Asia for year and Andy has a unique perspective on China, having lived and worked there for more than 20 years as an American diplomat and a sell-side macro strategist. Andy first went to China as a student in 1980, returned as Foreign Service Officer in 1984, joined CLSA in Shanghai in 2000, and then went to the buy side with Matthews Asia in 2014. This year, Andy founded Sinology LLC, advising institutional investors and corporate directors on the risks and opportunities in the Chinese economy, and on navigating the rising tensions in US-China relations. This follows on from Andy’s recent webinar after a recent visit to China in early April you can still go to the website to listen to that recording if you didn’t hear it live.
Mark Tinker recently posted the Latest thoughts from Market Thinker - 'The Ratchet and the Sausage Machine’. 'Trump the deal maker has learned the hard way that, to use arch Politician Tony Blair’s favourite phrase, “ Politics is the art of the possible”. Anyone who has seen the television series House of Cards will recognise the compromises and political wrangling needed to pass a Bill in the House. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was primarily about preventing the sunsetting of the tax cuts that he passed in his previous term and thus was not so much about cutting taxes as preventing them rising.’
Musk’s DOGE campaign was about highlighting the ‘fat’ in the existing administration and hence make the case for Trumps Big Beautiful Bill. Which additionally Trump considers to benefit his enemies.
The result is a radical and possible stimulatory policy, with an unproven outcome but the covid experience suggests that giving more cash to US individuals results in them spending. He also touches on the implications of Section 899 which allows the US to tax foreigners if Trump feels their governments do things he doesn’t like.
You can find the whole article here
Market opening indications and data
New Zealand
NZX saw a choppy open, initially trading 12,620/605 and then testing up to 12,625; currently up 16 pts 0.13% at 12,619
Data Out
Business Confidence Q2 22% vs 19% Q1 (F/cast was 6%)
Capacity Utilisation Q2 89.4% vs 90.5% Q1 (F/cast was 90.8%)
Building Permits May 10.4% MoM vs -14.6 Apr revised (F/cast was -1.8%)
Due Later
1 year Bill Auction vs 3.195%
3 month Bill Auction vs 3.2164%
6 month Bill Auction vs 3.2132%
Global Dairy Trade Price Index 1 July vs -1% prior (F/cast is -1.3%)
Australia
ASX to open flat as futures indicate between -6pts and up 4pts, Energy weaker overnight, miners and tech mixed.
Data Due after the open
Manufacturing PMI Final Jun vs 51 May (F/cast is 51)
Commodity Prices Jun YoY vs -7.7% May (F/cast -7%)
Japan
Market to open lower
Nikkei 225 Futures indicate -260pts -0.64% at 40,250
Chicago Futures -10pts -0.02% at 40,385
TOPIX Futures -17pts -0.6% at 2,838
Yen 143.91 Monday's close in US. Opened 143.92 but trading 143.45
Data out 10 minutes pre market
Tankan Large Manufactures Index Q2 vs 12 Q1 (F/cast is 10)
Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2 vs 3.1% Q1 (F/cast is 3.4%)
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2 vs 12 Q1 (F/cast is 10)
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 vs 35 Q1 (F/cast is 34)
Tankan Non Manufacturing Outlook Q2 vs 28 Q1 (F/cast is 28)
Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q2 vs 2 Q1 (F/cast is 1)
Manufacturing PMI Final Jun vs 49.4 May (F/cast is 50.4)
Lunchtime
10-Year JGB Auction vs 1.512% prior
Afternoon
Consumer Confidence Jun vs 32.8 May (F/cast is 32.5)
S Korea
Market to open higher following the US overnight and recent positive momentum.
Monday stocks closed higher trade volume was moderate at 460.56 million shares worth 13.16 trillion won ($9.45 billion), with winners beating losers 488 to 395. Institutional and individual investors net bought while foreigners net sold. The local currency was quoted at 1,350 won against the greenback at 3:30 pm Monday, up 7.4 won from the previous session.
Data Due on the open
Balance of Trade Jun vs $6.94B May (F/cast is $8.3B)
Exports Jun YoY vs -1.3% May (F/cast is 5%)
Imports Jun YoY vs -5.3% May (F/cast is 7.2%)
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 47.7 May (F/cast is 50.6)
Lunchtime
30-Year KTB Auction vs 2.79% prior
Taiwan
Market to open slightly higher following the US but upside limited with HK market closed volumes likely to be light.
Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 48.6 May (F/cast is 49.5)
China
Market to open lower with caution ahead of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Golden Dragon Index closed -36pts -0.49% at 7,340
Spot USD/CNY opening -0.0089pt -0.14% at 7.1638
Data Due on the open
Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 48.3 May (F/cast is 49.2)
Hong Kong - No Data Due - Market Closed for Handover Day.
ADR’s closed up 182pts 0.74% at 24,507 with only ICBC, Bank of China and CK Hutch in the red.
Turnover on Monday was HK$242.234B
Macau - Data out after market Monday
Unemployment Rate May 1.9% vs 1.9% Apr
Singapore - Data Due pre market
URA Property Index Prelim Q2 QoQ vs 0.8% Q1 (F/cast is 0.5%)
Bank Lending May vs S4841.9B Apr (F/cast is S$820B
Malaysia - Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 48.8 May (F/cast is 50.5)
Indonesia - Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 47.4 May (F/cast 48.5%)
Balance of Trade May vs $0.15B Apr (F/cast is $1.0B)
Exports May YoY vs 5.76% Apr (Consensus is 1%)
Imports May YoY vs 21.84% Apr (Consensus is -0.1%)
Inflation Rate Jun YoY vs 1.6% May (F/cast 1.7%)
Core Inflation Rate Jun YoY vs 2.4% May (F/cast 2.3%)
Tourist Arrivals May YoY vs 9.15%
Philippines - Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 50.1 May (F/cast is 50.4)
Business Confidence Q2 vs 31.2 Q1 (F/cast is 21)
Thailand - Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 51.2 May (F/cast is 51)
Myanmar - No Data Scheduled this week
Cambodia - No Data Scheduled this week
Vietnam - Date Due
Manufacturing PMI Jun vs 49.8 May (F/cast is 50.6)
India - Data Due
Manufacturing PMI Final Jun vs 57.6 May (F/cast is 58.4)
After Market Monday
Industrial Production May 1.2% YoY vs 2.6% Apr revised (F/cast was 2.5%)
Manufacturing Production May 2.6% YoY vs 3.1% Apr revised (F/cast was 3%)
Government Budget Value May INR -131.6B vs INR -1863.3B Apr (F/cast was INR -4800B)
Europe
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, CPI Flash, ECB Forum on Central Banking
Germany Unemployed Persons, Unemployment Changed, Manufacturing PMI
France Manufacturing PMI
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices, Manufacturing PMI Final, Green Gilt 2053
United States
Futures opened Dow -48pts -0.11%, S&P -0.14% and NDX -0.14%. (Dow futures have improved since they opened in Asia but S&P and NDX continue to drift lower)
Data Due Redbook, Fed Chir Powell speaks, Manufacturing PMI Jolts Job Openings & Quits, ISM Manufacturing Data (PMI, Employment, New Orders, Prices), Construction Spending, TIPP Economic Optimism Index, Dallas Fed Services Index and Revenues Index, Logistic Managers Index, API Crude Oil Stock Change.
HEADLINES & NEWS
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
Star in peril as partners threaten casino deal. Star Entertainment’s task of staying solvent just got a lot trickier after its Asian partners threatened to walk away from their Brisbane deal.
The criminals, MPs and VIPs: How Justin Hemmes went from party-boy billionaire to political operator. As the head of the Merivale empire’s political capital rose, so did the future criminals that swelled the membership ranks of its private club, Level 6.
The $115 billion a year boost to Australia at the touch of a button AI is championed by some as the biggest technological advance since electricity. New research shows it could boost Australia’s economy by $115 billion annually.
Australian home values continue to climb with RBA expected to cut rates. Home values have edged up for the fifth month in a row, with the Reserve Bank next week set to deliver further relief to those paying off their properties.
JAPAN
Support for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government has slipped ahead of key national elections next month, a poll showed on Monday, with his cash handout plan to help the public deal with inflation having failed to impress voters. The current ruling bloc of Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior partner Komeito lost its lower house majority last year. A poor showing in the upper house elections slated for July 20 would likely weaken his grip on power further. Support for Ishiba's government stands at 34%, down from 39% in the previous poll three weeks ago, according to the poll conducted by public broadcaster NHK. The LDP says in its campaign pledges that it plans to give out 20,000 yen ($139) to each individual and an additional 20,000 yen to children as well as adult members of low-income households amid rising prices. But the NHK poll showed 32% of those surveyed do not evaluate the plan very positively and 31% do not evaluate the scheme positively at all.
Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade negotiations on Monday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches despite good-faith negotiations. Trump wrote in a social media post that Japan's reluctance to import American-grown rice was a sign that countries have become "spoiled with respect to the United States of America.” "I have great respect for Japan, they won't take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "We'll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.” Trump said last week that his administration would send letters to a number of countries notifying them of their higher tariff rates before July 9, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to his suspended rates of 11% to 50% announced on April 2.
Trump's Monday complaint about U.S.-Japan rice trade follows his comments broadcast on Sunday that Japan engages in "unfair" autos trade with the U.S. Japan's main tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, on Monday said that Japan would continue working with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement while defending Japan's national interest. Akazawa said he was aware of Trump's comments on autos, adding that a continuation of Trump's 25% on autos imported from Japan would cause significant damage to its economy.
Another key trading partner, the European Union, is open to a trade agreement that maintains a 10% U.S. tariff on EU goods, but wants U.S. commitments to reduce its tariffs in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Nissan Motor has asked some suppliers to allow it to delay payments to free up short-term funds, according to several emails and a company document reviewed by Reuters, as the troubled Japanese automaker scrambles to boost cash. New CEO Ivan Espinosa, who took over in April, has unveiled plans to shed around 15% of Nissan's global workforce and close seven plants as he targets 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion) in cost cuts over the next two years. Battered by slumping sales and weighed down by an ageing vehicle lineup, the car maker reported a $4.5 billion net annual loss in the financial year that ended in March and has declined to give a forecast this year. Now, Nissan has asked some suppliers in Britain and the European Union to accept delays in payment, according to the correspondence reviewed by Reuters and a person with knowledge of the matter. The move would allow it to have more cash on hand at the close of the April-June first quarter and follows similar requests before the end of the last financial year in March, the emails showed. It is not uncommon for companies to request payment extensions from suppliers to help free up cash. In a statement to Reuters, Nissan said it had incentivised some of its suppliers to collaborate under more flexible payment terms, at no cost to them, to support its free cash flow. "They could choose to be paid immediately or opt for a later payment with interest," Nissan said. The correspondence, which has not been previously reported, gives a detailed look at Nissan's effort to conserve cash in the short term, even if that means paying suppliers more down the line. The emails were exchanged among Nissan employees in Britain and the EU, including staff in its purchasing and treasury departments, according to their profiles on LinkedIn.
Japanese households will get no respite from rising living costs with a five-fold increase expected in the number of food items set to experience price rises in July, a private think tank survey showed on Monday. The finding highlights mounting inflationary pressure in Japan's once deflation-prone economy, which some policymakers view as an early sign of widespread, sustained price rises that may require raising interest rates further. A survey conducted on 195 major food makers showed they expect to hike prices for 2,105 items in July - up fivefold from year-before levels - by an average 15%, Teikoku Databank said.
Aside from rising raw material prices and utility bills, companies cited increasing transportation and labour costs as reasons for the price hikes, the report released by Teikoku Databank showed. "The momentum for food and beverage price hikes is stronger in 2025 than that of the previous year," the report said. Prices were set to rise for a range of items including those made of rice, as well as chocolate, chewing gum, potato chips and pasta sauce. Among companies that announced plans to hike prices from July 1, Ajinomoto AGF plans to raise prices for its coffee items by about 25-55%, and Meiji will increase prices for cheese and milk by up to 11%. A renewed rise in crude oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East could spark a revival of the price hike rush Japan experienced in 2022, when prices increased for a total of 25,768 food and beverage items, Teikoku Databank said. After raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, the BOJ has kept borrowing costs steady despite core consumer inflation hitting a more than two-year high of 3.7% in May, exceeding its 2% target for well over three years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to move cautiously in raising rates until inflation is driven more by solid consumption and higher wages, rather than rising raw material costs. But the central bank's argument that rising food and fuel costs are likely temporary, and not a justification for raising rates, is being tested by persistent rises in the cost of living that may affect public perceptions of future price moves, analysts say. A government survey on Monday showed 93.6% of consumers polled in May expect prices to rise a year from now, up from 93.2% in April, with 55.5% projecting inflation of 5% or higher.
PM Ishiba told senior Self-Defense Forces officials on Monday that Japan will make "steady progress" boosting its defense capabilities amid concerns over an assertive China and North Korea's nuclear and missile development. Speaking at the Defense Ministry, Ishiba noted that the improvements would be in line with three key strategic documents, including the National Security Strategy. It was the first in-person meeting between the premier and SDF senior command in nearly six years. In his capacity as the commander-in-chief of the SDF, the prime minister conveyed his defense policy and exchanged views on key issues facing the defense forces. Japan aims to boost defense spending and related costs to 2 percent of gross domestic product in fiscal 2027. To stem falling recruitment numbers, it also revised a law in May to improve conditions, including pay. Regarding legal provisions, equipment and unit management, Ishiba, a former defense minister, urged the commanders to "express their views to political leadership as part of your professional duties," adding he expects "active proposals.” The meeting was first held in 1964 and typically convened annually until September 2019, with a remote gathering held in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.
Japan's 'death-tainted' homes gain appeal as property prices soar. In Japan, homes where murders or suicides have occurred are classified as "jiko bukken" or "misfortunate properties" that may provoke psychological distress for new owners or tenants. So are homes with "socially isolated" deaths - the most common type of misfortunate property where bodies are not found for some time and sufficient decay has set in to warrant special cleaning services or even the replacement of floors and wallpaper. Modern thinking around misfortunate properties has been shaped by Japan's ancient Shinto religion which holds that when a person dies with regrets, their spirit lingers on earth, often at the site of their death, bearing grudges or overwhelmed by grief. "But with rising real estate prices, people have begun considering misfortunate properties as an option.” Japan's property prices have rocketed on a surge in construction material and labour costs as well as an influx of overseas investors, attracted by a weak yen and the relative cheapness of local real estate. The average price for a second-hand 70-square-meter condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards, for example, jumped by more than a third in May from a year earlier to 100.9 million yen ($697,000), according to real estate research firm Tokyo Kantei.
SOUTH KOREA
Financially troubled MG Non-Life Insurance Co. may be put back on the selling block after the country's financial regulator and the company's labor union tentatively agreed on the matter, industry sources said Monday. In May this year, the Financial Services Commission said it has decided to liquidate MG Non-Life Insurance and its policy contracts would be transferred to five non-life insurers via a "bridge insurance company.” MG Non-Life Insurance has been on the selling block before after being designated as a financially weak company by the financial watchdog in April 2022. So far, four rounds of bids to sell the insurer have fallen through. Meritz Financial Group decided to drop its status as preferred bidder for the non-life insurer in March this year, citing differences with its labor union over job security. As of end-March this year, MG Non-Life Insurer held 1.51 million policy contracts, 90 percent of which are about illness and damage, and it has some 1.24 million policyholders.
The head of New Murabba Development Company, the developer behind Saudi Arabia's futuristic urban development project, said Monday that South Korea has been chosen as the company's top partner for its advanced infrastructure and information technology capabilities, as well as its long history of collaboration with the Middle Eastern nation. "There is a long and strong history between the two nations of collaborating," said Michael Dyke, chief executive officer of the company, in an interview with Yonhap News Agency. "Working with countries and people we already know and share good alignment with is always a good start.” New Murabba Development Company is set to hold the New Murabba Seoul Forum in Seoul on Tuesday and Wednesday to showcase its vision for building a new downtown in Riyadh. The event is expected to draw 500 participants, including company officials, government representatives and investors.
LG Electronics said Monday it has signed a deal to acquire Norwegian hot water solutions firm OSO Hotwater, as part of its expansion into Europe’s fast-growing heating, ventilation and air-conditioning market. Under the agreement, the South Korean tech giant will acquire 100 percent of OSO’s shares. Industry sources estimate the deal is worth hundreds of billions of won, though the company declined to disclose the exact amount. Lee Jae-sung, president of LG Electronics’ Eco Solutions division, said OSO’s water heating solutions are a “strategic catalyst for LG’s HVAC expansion.” “Together we will deliver highly efficient, integrated solutions that strengthen our market leadership and support global electrification for a more sustainable future,” he said. The transaction is expected to be completed in September, according to an LG official.
Hyundai Steel is driving its efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the steel and construction industries, under its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. According to the company, it hosted the “3rd Symposium on Steel Byproduct Utilization for Construction Material Technology” on June 20 in Seoul. The event aimed to share ways to use steel byproducts as construction materials and to strengthen cooperation between Hyundai Steel and other related organizations. This initiative also addresses the increasing demand for carbon reduction and resource circulation across industries. The symposium attracted over 100 experts from academia and industries, including officials and experts from Hyundai Steel, the Korea Iron & Steel Association, Hyundai Construction, SsangYong C&E and the Road Traffic Research Institute of Korea Expressway Corporation.
TAIWAN
The likelihood of China invading Taiwan without contest is “very, very small” because the Taiwan Strait is under constant surveillance by multiple countries, a US general has said. General Ronald Clark, commanding officer of US Army Pacific (USARPAC), the US Army’s largest service component command, made the remarks during a dialogue hosted on Friday by Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Asked by the event host what the Chinese military has learned from its US counterpart over the years, Clark said that the first lesson is that the skill and will of US service members are “unmatched.” The second lesson is specifically on the Taiwan issue, “because that’s where we spend a lot of our time thinking about how to counter cross-strait invasion, which is the most dangerous course of action,” in particular, “how hard that [invasion] is.”
The US Army builds its warfighter program at the division and corps levels to counter a “wet gap crossing” — a military maneuver designed to facilitate the crossing of a body of water, he said. In the context of Taiwan, it refers to a military operation in which Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops and equipment are moved across the Taiwan Strait. “We’re talking about an adversary [China] that has to cross an 80-mile [129km] wet gap that’s being watched by an unblinking eye, multiple countries working together to deter them from that activity,” he said. The chances of being able to conduct “an uncontested or successful wet gap crossing of that scale” are “very, very small,” the general added. “So our efforts to continue to make that problem set more difficult for the Chinese is where we spend a lot of our time,” the US Army general added.
Semiconductor specialty gas supplier Taiwan Speciality Chemicals Corp expects revenue to grow 170 percent after acquiring a major stake in semiconductor parts cleaning company Hung Jie Technology Corp in a NT$3 billion (US$100.33 million) all-cash deal, a company executive said yesterday. The deal would give Taiwan Speciality Chemicals a 65 percent share of Hung Jie Technology, which specializes in dry cleaning advanced semiconductor chamber parts used in the etching process. Maintaining cleanliness and applying appropriate coatings are vital to prevent particle contamination and device defects. Hung Jie Technology, established in 2008, operates three factories in Tainan, Hsinchu County and Nanjing, China. The company cleans semiconductor parts made by the world’s five largest semiconductor equipment suppliers, Taiwan Speciality Chemicals said. “The acquisition of Hung Jie Technology is entirely aligning with the company’s long-term development strategy” and contributes to revenue and profit growth, Taiwan Speciality Chemicals chairwoman Doris Hsu told a virtual news conference. Taiwan Speciality Chemicals reported NT$874 million in revenue for last year, a spike of 58 percent from the previous year. About 80 percent of last year’s revenue came from selling disilane, while the remaining 20 percent came from distributing other companies’ gases and related services, the company said.
Credit card users in Taiwan younger than 30 years old topped all age groups in annual spending last year, spending an average of NT$2.041 million (US$68,256) per card, the National Credit Card Center said yesterday. While credit card users younger than 30 accounted for only 7.42 percent of the total number of cards, they made 453 transactions on average per card last year, far ahead of other age groups, the center said in a report. “This specific group has considerable spending power and will gradually become a major player among Gen Z in driving the economy,” deserving the most attention by both card issuers and merchants, it said. Meanwhile, the spending power of those aged 60 or older was also noteworthy, it said.
Although their 142 transactions on average per card last year were the lowest among all age groups, their average spending per transaction was the highest, at NT$10,744, with annual spending averaging NT$1.525 million per card, second only to those younger than 30, the report showed. Total credit card spending last year reached a record high of NT$4.68 trillion, as the nation reported a three-year high GDP growth of 4.84 percent and as the consumer price index came in at 2.18 percent, the third consecutive year that headline inflation exceeded the 2 percent alert, government data showed. The top 1 percent of all cardholders spent NT$1.47 million per card on average last year, 27 times that of ordinary users, at NT$54,191, and contributed 21.5 percent to total transactions by all cardholders, the report found.
Cable assembly maker Golden Bridge Electech Inc yesterday said it aims to sustain revenue growth in the second half of this year, driven by rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications in the consumer electronics sector. The company would also seek to work with leading original equipment manufacturers and original design manufacturers to secure AI-related business opportunities, Golden Bridge Electech chief financial officer James Chiu said after its annual shareholders’ meeting in Taipei. The company supplies high-fidelity signal cable assemblies as well as cables for electronics, electrical machines, communications, high-speed networks, computer peripherals, consumer electronics and medical equipment, its Web site says. Golden Bridge Electech is considering new investment and product development plans, as current equipment might not be sufficient for advanced production processes, such as those related to AI, Chiu said. “It will take time and planning, as we need to assess whether the investment would generate revenue for the company, but we are moving in that direction,” he said. Malaysia contributed the largest share of Golden Bridge Electech’s revenue last year at 24.55 percent, followed by China at 24.25 percent, the US at 21.89 percent, Taiwan at 15.32 percent and other regions combined at 13.99 percent, company data showed.
“We are planning product arrangements at our Malaysia plant, which has been operating for about two years,” Chiu said. “As the plant has also adopted automated production, we hope future operations could be smooth.” The company is planning to shift some of its capacity in China to its facility in Sungai Petani, Malaysia, due to geopolitical uncertainties, he added.
CHINA
China will maintain duties on certain steel products from the European Union, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Indonesia, its commerce ministry said Monday, as overcapacity concerns drive global trade turbulence. The duties on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled plates, first levied by Beijing in 2019, range from 20.2 percent for Indonesian imports to 43 percent for those from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that an internal investigation found the potential termination of the anti-dumping duties could still cause "damage" to the domestic stainless steel industry. Authorities will therefore continue to impose duties on products from the three countries and the European bloc "for a period of five years starting from July 1", the ministry said in a statement. China, the world's largest steel producer, first took the measures in response to tariffs imposed on it by the United States during Donald Trump's first presidential term.
Prices for goods made in China and sold on Amazon.com have been rising faster than overall inflation, according to an analysis of 1,400 different products conducted exclusively for Reuters by the analytics firm DataWeave, a sign that tariffs are starting to hit American consumers. The analysis shows that price increases for those goods accelerated beginning in May, a signal U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are starting to filter through to consumers. The median price of a basket of more than 1,400 products made in China and sold on Amazon.com to U.S. buyers has gone up by 2.6% between January and mid-June, outpacing the latest U.S. inflation rate for core goods, which runs only through May. Price increases vary depending on the item sold, and prices for some goods declined. For the six months through May, core goods CPI - which excludes services - rose by 1%, implying a 2% annualized rate. Both the federal data and DataWeave's study show that goods costs have trended upward in the last couple of months as tariffs begin to exert pressure on prices. DataWeave analyzed more than 25,000 items, focusing on 1,407 products sold on Amazon because those clearly list China as the country of origin. The firm used median prices rather than averages, since averages can be skewed by short-term price spikes or unusually high or low values. The basket of China-made goods includes products sold by Amazon as well as its third-party sellers. Third-party sellers account for 62% of all products sold on Amazon.
The goods rising at the fastest rate include school and office supplies, electronic items such as printers and shredders, blank media items like CDs and DVDs, and home goods such as furnishings and cookware. China, which shipped $438.9 billion of goods last year to the U.S., is a big global supplier in all of these categories. Of the 1,407 items tracked in the DataWeave study between January and June 17, 475 showed price increases, 633 remained unchanged, and 299 saw price declines. For example, a Hamilton Beach electric kettle climbed to a median $73.21 from $49.99, while the price of a GreenPan frying pan more than doubled to $31.99. Through April, inflation across that product group remained modest. Prices increased more sharply in May and accelerated into June, particularly in the Home & Furniture and Electronics categories, which showed a median increase of 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively, over the time frame of the study.
Military leaders are working to enforce a "one-theatre" concept in both the East and South China seas, the Philippines' defence minister said on Monday, adding that the Southeast Asian country faces threats in disputed waters that are similar to Japan’s. Japanese newspaper Asahi reported in April that Japanese defence minister Gen Nakatani made a proposal to U.S. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth to consider the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas as a single "theatre", referring to a military area of operation. Gilberto Teodoro, the Philippines' Secretary of National Defense, said it was "reasonable" to treat both the East and South China seas as a single area of operation, saying both are maritime areas with no land borders involved. However, he said the area should exclude the Korean Peninsula. "That will involve synergy in operations, synergy in domain awareness, in intelligence exchange, and in mutually reinforcing our strengths to work doubly real-time," he said at a briefing during the visit of his Lithuanian counterpart Dovile Sakaliene. Japan and China have repeatedly faced off over uninhabited Japanese-administered islands in the East China Sea that Tokyo calls the Senkaku and Beijing calls the Diaoyu. The Philippines and China, meanwhile, have clashed frequently in the South China Sea around disputed shoals and atolls that fall inside Manila's exclusive economic zone. Japan's Joint Operations Command is operationalising the single-theatre concept, and the "Squad" grouping that includes the defense ministers of Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will establish a coordinating centre in December to enforce it, Teodoro said. "So it is already an operating concept. It does not need any other agreement," Teodoro said. Japan and the Philippines last year signed a military agreement that could allow their soldiers on each other's soil. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has extended its arc of alliances beyond the United States, its traditional ally, signing defence deals with Japan and New Zealand, and negotiating for similar agreements with Canada and France. On Monday, the Philippines and Lithuania signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen defence cooperation in areas like cyber security, maritime security and munitions production.
HONG KONG
National Security
Beijing has expanded its national security crackdown on Hong Kong, shifting from the principle of “patriots administering” the territory to requiring businesspeople to be “patriotic,” with national security terms proliferating within the catering and entertainment industries, a Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) report said yesterday, ahead of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover today. In its 2014 white paper on the “one country, two systems” policy following the 1997 handover, Beijing claimed that “Hong Kong would be governed by Hong Kong people with a high degree of autonomy,” the report said. However, that has since been reformulated to a system in which Hong Kong would be governed by both “Hong Kongers and the Chinese central government,” with a comprehensive system of surveillance gradually being implemented over the past 28 years, it said. Beijing has imposed the principle of “patriots administering Hong Kong” to limit political participation by Hong Kongers, while also implementing patriotism education infused with “Xi Jinping Thought,” the report said.
Last month, China’s Office for Safeguarding National Security of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, in collaboration with the National Security Department of the Hong Kong Police Force, conducted an unprecedented “joint investigation” into a national security case, it said. The move has raised concerns over the possibility of Hong Kongers accused of “endangering national security” being extradited to China, with political dissent continuing to be suppressed, exemplified by the dissolution of Hong Kong’s Democratic Party this year, more than three decades after its founding, it added.
As Hong Kong prepares to mark the 28th anniversary of its return to China on Tuesday (July 1), Beijing’s key offices on Hong Kong affiars has lauded the city's progress under Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu's leadership, citing improved global rankings and governance as evidence of the "strong vitality" of the "One Country, Two Systems" principle. In a commentary published Monday by the Hong Kong and Macao Work Office of CPC Central Committee and the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of State Council, it highlighted Hong Kong's recent achievements, including its rise in international finance and competitiveness indices, as well as the strong performance of its universities. The office praised Lee's administration for its "courageous, reform-driven, and proactive" approach over the past three years, which it said had elevated the city's governance to new heights. The article commended various sectors for their contributions, including lawmakers for actively listening to public concerns and offering policy suggestions, the judiciary for independently exercising judicial power, and district councillors, the "Care Teams," and members of the "three committees" for their dedicated community service. It also noted the patriotic groups' support for government policies and the business community's confidence in Hong Kong, emphasizing that all sectors prioritize the city's and the nation's overall interests. The HKMAO pointed to last year's enactment of Article 23 national security legislation as a milestone in strengthening the legal framework for safeguarding national security, adding that patriotic values have become widely embraced in Hong Kong. On the economic front, the office noted the city's steady recovery, accelerated housing and land supply, reduced public housing wait times, and increased fiscal investments in social welfare, healthcare, and education—improvements it said have delivered "visible and tangible" benefits to residents.
Earnings
FAIRWOOD HOLD (00052.HK) announced Monday its full-year results for the period ending March 31, 2025. Revenue was HKD3.1 billion, down 1.2% YoY. Net profit was HKD35.54 million, down 29.8% YoY, with EPS at HKD27.43 cents. A final DPS of HKD17 cents was declared, compared to HKD30 cents the previous year. Including the interim dividend of HKD5 cents, the total dividend for the year is HKD22 cents, vs HKD41 cents last year, with a payout ratio of approximately 80.2%.
IPO
Unisound(09678.HK), which listed Monday, opened at $205. Peaking/ bottoming at $319.8/198, the stock closed at $296.4, up 44.6% from the listing price of $205, on volume of 803,070 shares and turnover of $178.72 million. Excluding handling fee, the book gain was $1,828 per board lot size of 20 shares.
IFBH(06603.HK), which will be listed Monday, opened at $43.9, up 57.9% from the listing price of $27.8. Peaking/ bottoming at $46.5/38, the stock closed at $39.5, up 42.1% from the listing price of $27.8, on volume of 38.91 million shares and turnover of $1.67 billion. Excluding handling fee, the book gain was $2,340 per board lot size of 200 shares.
Medtide(03880.HK), which listed Monday opened at $30.3, down 1% from the listing price of $30.6. Peaking/ bottoming at $32.85/28.1, the stock closed at $30.8, up 0.7% from the listing price of $30.6, on volume of 8.59 million shares and turnover of $272.3 million. Excluding handling fee, the book gain was $20 per board lot size of 100 shares.
LENS (06613.HK) is offering shares in Hong Kong, with an offering price ranging from HKD17.38 to HKD18.18 per share. Entry fee is HKD3,672.68 with a board lot size of 200 shares. The company has introduced 10 cornerstone investors, including XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) and OLYMPIC CIRCUIT (603920.SH) and expects to raise HKD4.59 billion. The group, a supplier to Apple (AAPL.US), was asked about the impact of tariffs on orders. Jiang Nan, Deputy General Manager, President of China Region, and Board Secretary, stated that the group's strong customer stickiness have resulted in no major changes to orders due to external factors. Liu Shuguang, Deputy General Manager and Chief Financial Officer, mentioned that the group established overseas production capacity seven to eight years ago and will work with customers to mitigate impacts. While they have set up plants in Vietnam and Thailand, the costs and yields of overseas plants are not as favorable as domestic ones, leading to a cautious approach in considering overseas plant establishment.
Buybacks
AIA (01299.HK) announced that it had repurchased 2.5 million shares on the Stock Exchange today (30th) at a price per share ranging from $70.5 to $71.8, involving approximately $177 million. Since the repurchase mandate resolution was approved on 23 May 2025, the Company has repurchased a total of 87.2356 million shares, accounting for 0.8156% of its share capital.
HSI Short Selling Monday 12% vs 14.7% Friday
Top shorts Bud APAC (1876) 57%, CM Bank (3968) 41%, Xinyi Glass (868) 38%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 37%, Hansoh Pharma (3692) 32%, MTRC (66) 30%, China Shenhua (1088) 30%, Chow Tai Fook (1929) 30%, ZTO Express (2057) 29%, Sands China (1928) 29%, Nongfu Spring (9633) 28%, Henderson Land (12) 27%, Li Auto (2015) 27%, Wuxi Apptec (2359) 26%, Midea Group (300) 26%, WH Group (288) 25%.
WATCH
On 30 June, NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) successfully refinanced certain of its existing offshore unsecured financial indebtedness, including bank loans, through a new refinancing term loan facility entered into by the Company, the relevant Group entities and the relevant bank creditors; and aligned its other existing offshore unsecured bank loans with the terms of the new bank facility, according to NEW WORLD DEV's announcement. The new bank facility and aligned bank facilities together cover approximately $88.2 billion of the Group's existing unsecured offshore financial indebtedness. The new bank facility and the aligned bank facilities have terms which allow the Group more flexibility to better manage its expected ongoing business and financial needs, the Group added. The new bank facility consists of multiple tranches of bank loans with different maturities, with the earliest maturity date being 30 June 2028.
NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) announced that, as of 25 June, the Group completed its contracted sales target of $26 billion for the 2024/2025 fiscal year. In terms of Hong Kong operations, the Group, in collaboration with Empire Group, CSI PROPERTIES (00497.HK), LAI SUN DEV (00488.HK) and MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK), developed the Deep Water Pavilia in Wong Chuk Hang. As of 25 June, over 330 units have been sold, with approx. 70% opting for a 120-day cash payment plan, and the highest transaction price per square foot reaching about $50,000. Moreover, the Group's Pavilia Forest project in Kai Tak, developed in cooperation with FE CONSORT INTL (00035.HK) -0.010 (-1.176%) , has sold over 580 units as of 25 June, with the highest transaction price per square foot around $25,500.
BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) announced that Meng Qian resigned as Chief Information Officer due to the age reason. The resignation shall become effective as of 30 June.
Alibaba DAMO Academy and Zhejiang Cancer Hospital recently released the world's first gastric cancer image screening AI model, DAMO GRAPE, which utilizes plain scan CT images to identify early gastric cancer lesions for the first time, and joined hands with 20 hospitals in mainland China to dramatically improve the detection rate of gastric cancer in a large-scale clinical study with nearly 100,000 people. The relevant paper has recently been published in the Nature Medicine.
Monday closings in EUROPE & US
DAX -0.51%, CAC -0.33%, FTSE -0.43%
European markets opened slightly higher and drifted lower through the day. Vesta - 8% lead the losses as the US changes its wind energy regulations. Bayer -5% was the third biggest loser due to the U.S. Supreme Court delayed a decision on a long-running litigation over its weedkiller.
Germany’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 2% in June, bringing Europe’s largest economy in line with the European Central Bank’s target, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Monday.
The U.K.’s trade deal with the U.S. came into effect today, slashing tariffs on British-made autos and removing levies on Britain’s aerospace sector. But while U.K. steel has also been given a preferential tariff rate of 25%, compared with 50% for other trade partners, questions remain over when — and by how much — tariffs on U.K. metals can be reduced further, as promised. The U.K. government said Monday that it is still working with The Trump administration to bring tariffs on Britain’s core steel products down to 0%.
DOW 0.63%, NDX 0.47%, S&P 0.52%, Russel 2K 0.12%
US markets opened slightly higher and traded in a tight range just about flat. The S&P closed at a Q2 record, along with the Nasdaq. The DOW closed higher too.
Canada rescinding its digital service tax in an effort to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. After President Trump on Friday said the U.S. was “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada.” Initial payments on the tax were set to begin Monday and would have applied to companies such as Google, Meta and Amazon.
Investors are awaiting news of any trade deals between the U.S. and trading partners, as Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve is set to expire next week. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there are “countries that are negotiating in good faith.” However, he added that “if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant,” tariffs could still “spring back” to the levels announced on April 2.
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill is still held up at the Senate and even then doesn’t have a clear path in the House before getting to Trump for signing. Concerns are about the size of the deficit it will cause.
Coinbase is the top performer in the S&P 500 fpr the month of June, boosted by positive regulatory updates, product launches and, of course, its very inclusion in the benchmark stock index at the end of May. Bitcoin miners +VE after the Wall Street Journal reported Core Scientific is in talks to be acquired by the AI company CoreWeave, validating the value of mining infrastructure as a high value asset not just for bitcoin but for artificial intelligence.
Banks JPMorgan Chase 0.98%, Citigroup 0.88% Wells Fargo 0.78%, Amex 0.56%
Ecommerce Meta 0.61%, Apple 2.03%, Amazon -1.75%, Netflix 1.21%, Disney 1.37%, Zoom Comms -0.51%, Alphabet -0.49% and Microsoft 0.3%,
Tech NXP Semi 0.67%, Nvidia 0.15%, Micron -1.21%, AMD -1.33%, Skyworks -0.37%
Industrial/Discretionary Boeing -2.34%, Caterpillar 0.91%, Simon Property 0.16%, Kohl’s 0.47%, Gap -0.41%, United Airlines 0.57%, Carnival 3.15%, Wynn Resorts -1.07%,
Auto Ford 0.46%, GM -0.95%, Tesla -1.89%,
Energy Chevron -0.42%, Exxon Mobil -1.44%,
Consumer Staples Campbell Soup -0.45% General Mills 2.55%, JM Smucker 2.69%
DAILY DATA
USD weaker, Bitcoin -0.18% at 107,306.49, VIX 2.51% at 16.73
US T10 -4 bpts to 4.238% and T2 -2 bpts at 3.725%, T30 -5 bpts at 4,787%
OIL Brent -0.24%, WTI -0.63% on easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospects of another OPEC+ output hike.
Spot Gold 0.6%, Silver -0.1%, Copper 0.57% Platinum -0.3%, Palladium -3.2%.